Small Craft Advisory 604, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 252347
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT WED JUL 25 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-261400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 995 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK WILL DRIFT EAST TO 650 NM SOUTH
OF YAKUTAT BY FRI AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN TO 1003 MB. 
$$

PKZ120-261400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT WED JUL 25 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 45
KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-261400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT WED JUL 25 2007

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTH OF
CAINES HEAD NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT EXCEPT 7 FT SOUTH OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-261400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT WED JUL 25 2007

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF SEAL
ISLAND. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
SEAL ISLAND. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.

$$

PKZ129-261400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT WED JUL 25 2007

.TONIGHT...E WIND TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-261400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT WED JUL 25 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 15
KT BECOMING VARIABLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT...HIGHEST SEAS EAST OF
BARREN ISLANDS. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-261400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT WED JUL 25 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-261400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT WED JUL 25 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12
FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-261400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT WED JUL 25 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-261400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT WED JUL 25 2007

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 4
FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW WIND 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT TUE JUL 24 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...UKMET AND GFS CONTINUE TO BE MODELS OF CHOICE.
THEY BOTH INITIALIZED THE LOW SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK WELL AND HAVE BEEN
VERY CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN. THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND STILL CANNOT
GET A HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A VERTICAL CUTOFF LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABSORBED
INTO THE LOW SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK. THE MAIN CENTER WILL REMAIN
QUASISTATIONARY THROUGH WED BEFORE MOVING ALONG THE JET TO THE EAST
JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
AREAS UP THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA.  A RIDGE
OVER THE BERING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH
WED EVENING BEFORE THE LOW GETS SWEPT UP IN THE JET. A WEAK RIDGE
ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST AND A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE
INTERIOR WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WED.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AK ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OFF THE WEST
COAST WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AND END FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THIS LOW
BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE ONE SOUTH OF KODIAK. THE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK
WILL STRENGTHEN BRINGING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE NORTH GULF COAST
WATERS. THIS LOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO ENHANCE RAINFALL ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL AND BRISTOL BAY WITH SOUTH TO EAST FLOW THROUGH THE
AREA. THE WIND GRADIENT IS NOT THAT TIGHT THROUGH SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST TERRAIN SO EVEN ANCHORAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN AS
DOWNSLOPING WILL BE MINIMAL. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THROUGH
NORTHEAST GAPS AND CHANNELED AREAS LIKE SHELIKOF STRAIT AND COOK
INLET. CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS..DRIZZLE AND FOG OVER THE BERING SEA
THROUGH WED.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A DRYING TREND LOOKS LIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL THU
THROUGH SAT AS A RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA OVER THE
WESTERN MAINLAND AND AS THE GULF LOW MOVES TO THE EASTERN GULF.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 150 120 130 138
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RNW JUL 07