Small Craft Advisory 601, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA

200 PM ADT MON JUL 23 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT EXCEPT
FOR THE NAM SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS.  SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WE WILL
GO WITH THE GFS/UKMET SOLUTION AND ACCOUNT THE NAM DIFFERENCE TO THE
USUAL BOUNDARY AND INITIALIZATION SUSPECTS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A VERTICAL CUTOFF LOW OVER BETHEL WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD.  A
STRONG SHORT WAVE SOUTH OF NIKOLSKI WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST AND
MERGE WITH THE BETHEL LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND TUE NIGHT.  A RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE ALEUTIANS TUE THEN MOVE TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
WED.  A NEW LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN PACIFIC TO SOUTH
OF ADAK ON WED. A WEAK RIDGE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WED.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE BETHEL LOW OVER
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AND END FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS THIS LOW MOVES TO THE GULF.  PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL
BE THE GREATEST IN SOUTHEAST FACING UPSLOPE AREAS IN SOUTH CENTRAL.
CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS OVER THE BERING SEA THROUGH WED.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A DRYING TREND LOOKS LIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL THU
THROUGH SAT AS A RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA OVER THE
WESTERN MAINLAND AND AS THE GULF LOW MOVES TO THE EASTERN GULF.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RHH JUL 07