Small Craft Advisory 596, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 211631 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT SAT JUL 21 2007

CORRECTED SYNOPSIS

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-220200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A WEAK 1002 MB LOW 50 NM WEST OF MEKORYUK WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING SEA. A 1002 MB LOW 375 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA
WILL DRIFT NORTH TO 225 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA AT THE SAME STRENGTH BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THEN MOVE EAST TO 200 NM SOUTHWEST OF ATKA AT 1005
MB MONDAY MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-220200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM ADT SAT JUL 21 2007

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-220200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM ADT SAT JUL 21 2007

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-220200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM ADT SAT JUL 21 2007

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-220200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT SAT JUL 21 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-220200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM ADT SAT JUL 21 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT...HIGHEST SOUTH OF NUNIVAK
ISLAND. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ170-220200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM ADT SAT JUL 21 2007

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT BERING SIDE TO 7 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-220200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM ADT SAT JUL 21 2007

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-220200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM ADT SAT JUL 21 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT...HIGHEST PACIFIC SIDE. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT...HIGHEST PACIFIC SIDE. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT...HIGHEST PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-220200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM ADT SAT JUL 21 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT...HIGHEST PACIFIC SIDE. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT...HIGHEST PACIFIC SIDE. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT BERING SIDE TO 9 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-220200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM ADT SAT JUL 21 2007

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT...HIGHEST PACIFIC SIDE. PATCHY FOG.

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT...HIGHEST PACIFIC SIDE. PATCHY
FOG. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-220200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM ADT SAT JUL 21 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-220200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM ADT SAT JUL 21 2007

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT FRI JUL 20 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON A DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE ALEUTIANS. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WHEREAS THE NAM SEEMS TO
HAVE INITIALIZATION AND BOUNDARY PROBLEMS OUT WEST. THE MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT OVER MAINLAND ALASKA THROUGH 42 HOURS WITH THE NAM
SHOWING BETTER DETAIL. WE WENT WITH THE NAM IN THE SHORT RANGE EAST
OF 170W AND THE GFS BEYOND 42 HOURS AND FOR THE DEVELOPING LOW
SOUTHWEST OF THE ALEUTIANS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BERING STRAIT. A TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW OVER KODIAK ISLAND AND INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.
THE BERING STRAIT LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
BY SAT NIGHT THEN REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE DELTA INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  WEAK AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER
THE WESTERN BERING AND OVER THE ALASKA CANADA BORDER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR.
A LARGE WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS SOUTH OF THE GULF ALONG
50N.  A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS NEAR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND UNDER THE
UPPER LOW. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS
TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA. A DEVELOPING LOW IS SOUTHWEST OF THE
ALEUTIANS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

BERING SEA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE BERING SEA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG WILL PERSIST OVER THE
BERING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN BERING NEAR THE UPPER
LOW INTO NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED THROUGH MID WEEK BY THE
LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE BERING STRAIT TONIGHT AND SAT. ZONES 155
AND 161 WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
MORNING AS STRONGEST SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND BASE OF UPPER LOW. THE
UPPER LOW WILL STALL OVER THE DELTA SUN THROUGH TUE AND CONTINUE
SHOWERS FOR MOST OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SUNNY
BREAKS ARE FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL.  A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THE TALKEETNA
MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE OVER THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RHH JUL 07