Small Craft Advisory 588, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 170000
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT MON JUL 16 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-171400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEAK 1010 MB TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR CORDOVA WILL DRIFT
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COAST IN THE NORTH GULF OF ALASKA MON NIGHT
BEFORE MOVING INLAND TUE MORNING VICINITY SEWARD. A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA TUE AND TUE
NIGHT. A 998 MB LOW 90 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT TUE AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
TO 160 NM EAST OF SAND POINT WED AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ120-171400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT MON JUL 16 2007

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT EXCEPT E WIND 15 KT NORTH AND EAST OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-171400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT MON JUL 16 2007

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-171400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT MON JUL 16 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF WESTERN BAYS
AND PASSES IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. 
.TUE THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-171400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT MON JUL 16 2007

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-171400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT MON JUL 16 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-171400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT MON JUL 16 2007

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT 35 KT SOUTH OF SITKINAK IN THE
EVENING. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT...HIGHEST SOUTH OF SITKINAK. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-171400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT MON JUL 16 2007

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-171400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT MON JUL 16 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-171400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT MON JUL 16 2007

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
6 FT. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT MON JUL 16 2007

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN AK THIS MORNING EXTENDS SOUTHWEST TO
THE KUSKOKWIM. UPPER LOWS ARE ALSO SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND
POKING TOWARD SE AK. UPPER RIDGES PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND

THE NORTH GULF COAST. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGES ARE OVER THE BERING AND
SW AK...WITH A TROUGH ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND A LOW SOUTH OF
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS AGREE THAT A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN PROGRESS...WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH MIGRATING INTO THE BERING AND A NORTH PACIFIC LOW HEADING TO
BRISTOL BAY AND THE AKPEN. WHILE THAT IS OCCURRING...AN EASTERLY WAVE
WILL MOVE INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND POSSIBLY A BIT FARTHER.
THIS WILL THEN LOSE INFLUENCE AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WESTERN LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AK AND ALEUTIAN RANGES. FORECASTS ONCE
AGAIN LEAN HEAVILY ON THE GFS WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE
ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ELEMENTS...IN PARTICULAR BRINGING THE NORTH
PACIFIC LOW AS FAR NORTH AS THE WESTERN AK PEN BEFORE IT DIVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF.

SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...THE INITIAL LOW BRINGS RAIN AND SMALL CRAFT WIND TO THE
ALEUTIANS TODAY...AND THEN AS AN INTENSIFYING WAVE MOVES PAST THE
INITIAL LOW TONIGHT...GALES WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN ISLANDS AND THE
AKPEN THROUGH TUE. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE AREA THROUGH WED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE BERING...IMPEDING THE NORTHWARD
PROGRESS OF THE NEXT LOW. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN AND GALES MAINLY ALONG
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CHAIN THU NIGHT AND FRI.

OVER SW AK...THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENSION OF THE UPPER LOW MAY TRIGGER
A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EXTENSION THEN CUTS OFF OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT AND MAY HELP A FEW MORE SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER MOUNTAINS
TUE. BY WED THE BERING-ALEUTIAN LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS LASTING AT LEAST UNTIL THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF THU.
MOUNTAINS WILL BE THE FOCUS OF MORE SHOWERS FRI.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...RESIDUAL OVERNIGHT CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE APPROACH OF THE EASTERLY
WAVE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY SLOW TO ALLOW ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY
OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO RAIN TUE IN THAT
AREA WITH MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN
WILL REACH THE TALKEETNAS TUE NIGHT. AT THAT POINT THE FLOW BEGINS TO
BE DOMINATED BY THE BERING-ALEUTIAN LOW AND THE RIDGING AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL DRY THINGS OUT EXCEPT ALONG MOUNTAINS AND IN PARTICULAR
THE WRANGELLS THROUGH FRI.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

LITTLE CHANGE OUT WEST AS THE LOW REMAINS NEAR THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A WAVE DIVING DOWN THE WEST COAST BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. A THERMAL TROUGH SETS UP
NEAR THE ALCAN FOR WEEKEND AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS OVER THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN...AND ALONG THE AK RANGE AND TALKEETNAS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 155 165
FIRE WEATHER...

DS JUL 07