Small Craft Advisory 577, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 110039 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
440 PM ADT TUE JUL 10 2007

UPDATE FOR ZONE 138
CORRECTION FOR THE SYNOPSIS

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-111400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1005 MB LOW 130 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY WILL WEAKEN TO 1010 MB 190
NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY WED NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE THU. A RIDGE
REMAINS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-111400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT TUE JUL 10 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-111400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT TUE JUL 10 2007

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU THROUGH SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-111400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT TUE JUL 10 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-111400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT TUE JUL 10 2007

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-111400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT TUE JUL 10 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-111400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT TUE JUL 10 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-111400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
440 PM ADT TUE JUL 10 2007

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-111400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT TUE JUL 10 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-111400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT TUE JUL 10 2007

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 20 KT NEAR THE ENTRANCE. SEAS 3
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 111126
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT WED JUL 11 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-120200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1005 MB LOW 130 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY WILL WEAKEN TO 1010 MB 
150 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY WED NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE THU. A RIDGE 
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH 
THU NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-120200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT WED JUL 11 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-120200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT WED JUL 11 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-120200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT WED JUL 11 2007

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-120200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT WED JUL 11 2007

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-120200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT WED JUL 11 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-120200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT WED JUL 11 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-120200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT WED JUL 11 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-120200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT WED JUL 11 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. OUT OF TURNAGAIN ARM...GUSTS TO 35 KT
DIMINISHING TO GUSTS TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-120200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT WED JUL 11 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT.   

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT TUE JUL 10 2007

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING
OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND ALSO SOUTH INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC.
NORTH PACIFIC JET RIDES NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF AND OVER
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN BERING.
AT THE SURFACE...GULF LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND
BRINGING RAIN TO THE NORTH GULF COAST AND SHOWERS INLAND. THERMAL LOW
IN THE INTERIOR HAS A TROUGH STRETCHING INTO BRISTOL BAY PROVIDING
RAIN TO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY AREAS. THIS LOW PROVIDED
ENOUGH INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON SOLUTIONS THE PAST FEW DAYS.
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LATEST MODELS IS BETTER IN THE WEST THAN IN THE
EAST. MOST OF THE DISCREPANCIES ARE MINOR IN THE GULF. LATEST NAM RUN
IS THE MOST BELIEVABLE IN TERMS OF THE GULF UPPER AND SURFACE LOW
JUST EAST OF KODIAK. MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN PAST 60
HOURS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...CLOUDY AND SHOWERY PATTERN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL CONTINUES
AS GULF UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN GULF. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL BE SQUEEZED SLIGHTLY
TODAY AND TOMORROW BETWEEN THE GULF LOW AND THE THERMAL INTERIOR LOW.
THIS WILL ACT TO ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS THOUGH EAST TO WEST GAPS IN THE
TERRAIN. GULF SURFACE LOW WILL DISSIPATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH NORTH FROM THE SOUTHEAST GULF. THIS WILL
ALLOW A SHORT BREAK ON FRIDAY FROM THE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND RAINY
PATTERN.

SOUTHWEST/AKPEN...UNSTABLE AIR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INTERIOR
THERMAL LOW PUSHING SOUTHWEST ALASKA IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOWERS WILL
DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN BUT REMAIN OVER THE
FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS AS A NORTH PACIFIC LOW SLIDES TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CHAIN TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS GENERALLY NEAR EASTERN BERING
THROUGH WESTERN GULF AREA TO KEEP THE MAINLAND IN MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LR JUL 07