Small Craft Advisory 557, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT WED JUN 27 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODEL INITIALIZATIONS AND FORECASTS SIMILAR THROUGH 60 HOURS. MODELS
DIFFER ON HANDLING OF WEAK EASTERN BERING SEA SYSTEM AND ALEUTIAN
RIDGE 60-84 HR. WENT GENERALLY WITH THE GFS AND MADE MINOR CHANGES IN
THE EXTENDED.

.ANALYSIS AND FORECAST...
.EAST...THERMAL TROUGH WILL LIKELY HOLD OVER THE INTERIOR OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO WITH RIDGE OVER THE GULF. UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
(MAINLY ALONG THE CHUGACH(FRI)/TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS...SUSITNA
VALLEY...AND COPPER RIVER BASIN. THE THERMAL TROUGH LIFTS NORTH SAT
AS EASTERLY WAVE BRINGS SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/RAIN TO THE COPPER RIVER ON SAT. EASTERLY WAVE SPREADS CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHCENTRAL SAT NIGHT/SUN. CONDITIONS ALSO
BECOME MORE STABLE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL SAT WITH LOW LOWER LEVEL COOLING
AND WARMING ALOFT. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SEABREEZES SHOULD BE FAIRLY
BRISK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.WEST...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER SW ALASKA AND BRISTOL BAY LATER
TODAY AND STALL AND WEAKEN. SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE PICKED UP
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA THIS
MORNING. THE BETHEL RADAR THIS AFTERNOON WAS SHOWING A FEW
SIGNIFICANT CELLS BUT NO FURTHER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT CLOUD
COVER SW ALASKA WILL HOLD DOWN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
THU...THERMAL THROUGH INTENSIFIES THU AND CLOUD BREAKS DEVELOP...SO
COULD SEE AFTERNOON/EVEN THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY FRI.
EXPECT WINDS OVER SW ALASKA/AK PEN TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS FRONT MOVES
INLAND. BERING SEA WINDS WILL DIMINISH THU AFTERNOON AND FRI AS LOW
CENTERS WEAKEN. EXPECT GENERALLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF LOW
STRATUS AND FOG WILL HOLD OVER MUCH OF THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC JUN 07