Small Craft Advisory 551, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT MON JUN 25 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS REASONABLE. FORECAST TREND
BETTER WITH GFS/UKMET WITH NEXT LOW TO ENTER THE BERING SEA TUESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS STILL IN INITIAL STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT AND DOES NOT
APPEAR TO HAVE POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR DEVELOPMENT...SO MODEL TRACK
ADJUSTMENTS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN ENSUING RUNS.

.EAST...
MOIST SOUTH FLOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ABATING.
CURRENT KENAI RADAR AND SAT IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE RAIN IS
DIMINISHING AND CLOUDS ARE THINNING. FORECAST TREND IS FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD ALONG THE NORTH/WESTERN GULF THROUGH MID-WEEK AS
THE THERMAL TROUGH INTENSIFIES INLAND. EXPECT SOUTHCENTRAL WILL
CONTINUE WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AS RIDGE BUILDS IN
TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS TUE THRU THU.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION LIKELY OVER THE SUSITNA
VALLEY/TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TUE
THROUGH THU. EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER ZONES
145...111...141(HIGHER ELEVATIONS) TUE. WARMING 500 MB TEMPS SHOULD
PUT A DAMPER ON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WED...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORM STILL POSSIBLE OVER COPPER RIVER BASIN WED.

WESTERN KENAI...DRYING CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN. ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WILL BE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WITH ZERO CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN
TO FIRE AREA. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SW SEABREEZES WILL BE THE GENERAL
RULE THROUGH THU.

.WEST...GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS WITH WEAK RIDGE OVER SW ALASKA
WILL CONTINUE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE DELTA/BRISTOL BAY ZONES. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ON TUE..THE
THERMAL TROUGH INTENSIFIES AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND INLAND BRISTOL BAY. CONDITIONS
OVER THE KUSKOKWIM AND INLAND BRISTOL BAY BECOME MORE STABLE WITH
WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WED..S THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG POTENTIAL CONTINUE OVER COASTAL SW AK THROUGH WED.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING SW OF THE ALEUTIANS IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
ALEUTIANS NEAR 178E TUE MORNING. GFS/UKMET HAVE BEST HANDLE OF
CURRENT RUNS. EXPECT WILL PROBABLY SEE GALES ON THE SOUTHERN QUAD OF
LOW CENTER TUE EVENING WITH SMALL CRAFT AS THE GENERAL RULE REMAINING
AREAS NEAR LOW CENTER. CENTER MOVES TO NEAR THE PRIBILOFS THU.
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES NORTH TO THE PRIBILOFS AND STRETCHES
SOUTH TO THE WESTERN AK PEN WED MORNING. FRONT LIKELY TO MOVE INTO SW
AK WED NIGHT/THU.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE ZONE 175.
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING

RMC JUN 07