Small Craft Advisory 519, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1 PM ADT THU JUN 14 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AGAIN TODAY. ALL BUILD
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MAX PRESSURE
AROUND 1044 MB ON SUNDAY. A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND DIGS IN
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TOMORROW
INCREASING THE INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER..WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND..EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND COPPER RIVER BASIN FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

ONSHORE FLOW AND A WEATHER FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL AND
SKIES RATHER CLOUDY OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA ON SATURDAY. THE BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ALEUTIANS SERVES AS THE STEERING CURRENT FOR
THE WEATHER FRONT WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW OVER RUSSIA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BREAKING DOWN BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THERMAL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA REMAINING
PRETTY MUCH IN PLACE. THE DIFFERENCE OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND WILL
COME AT THE UPPER LEVELS AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH BRING
WITH IT DRYER AND WARMER AIR BY MID WEEK. 850MB TEMPERATURES OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALASKA WILL APPROACH 57F (14C) BY MID WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JP JUN 07