Small Craft Advisory 51, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST SAT JAN 13 2007

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT BUT SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES REMAIN. NAM AND UKMET BEGINNING TO FALL IN LINE WITH THE
GFS SOLUTION.

AT UPPER LEVELS...GFS NAM AND UKMET ALL AGREE ON A DEEPENING LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
MIGRATING THROUGH IT THROUGH AT LEAST 72 HOURS. UKMET AGGRESSIVELY
DEEPENS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...NAM AND UKMET SOLUTION IS MORE
MODERATE. THE DIFFERENCE IS SIGNIFICANT FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. IF
UKMET IS RIGHT THIS WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR A TRIPLE
POINT LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA SUN AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY
MOVING IT INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. NAM AND GFS PREFER TO KEEP THE
LOW WEAKER AND CLOSER TO KODIAK ISLAND. GFS THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION...FOR THE TIME BEING.

EITHER WAY...MODELS DO AGREE ON KEEPING MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ANCHOR LOW PRESENTLY SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. ALL
MODELS DEEPEN THIS FEATURE TO AROUND 996 MB AND MOVE IT TO AROUND 400
NM SOUTH OF SEWARD BY MONDAY MORNING. PLENTY OF WARM ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
COUPLED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND TODAY.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TONIGHT AS WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

OUT WEST...
DRY NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE 996 MB LOW WILL BRING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA
PENINSULA. A QUASISTATIONARY LOW APPROX 360 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA
PERSISTS THROUGH AT LEAST 60 HOURS...MAINTAINING SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS. OTHERWISE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA BY TOMORROW MORNING. FOG AND STRATUS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING THROUGH TOMORROW
NIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 150 155.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB JAN 07