Small Craft Advisory 507, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM ADT FRI JUN 8 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THIS LAST RUN. THEY ARE MORE IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS FROM A
COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. STILL FAVORING THE GFS FOR STRENGTH AND
POSITIONING ON BRISTOL BAY LOW.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE BUT THE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TODAY. THE LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE AK PENN WILL BE ABSORBED INTO
THE LOW MOVING UP FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE TROUGH THAT ROTATED
INLAND THU WILL MOVE OFF THE Y-K DELTA COAST AND BROADEN OVER BRISTOL
BAY BEFORE WEAKENING SAT NIGHT AND MOVING INLAND AGAIN. COLD AIR
ALOFT IN THE WEST UNDER THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED
INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY TODAY ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL BUT IT
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY GUSTY THROUGH THE GAP AREAS. HOWEVER THERE IS LESS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ALONG
THE GULF COAST THROUGH SAT MORNING WITH EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE
NORTH PACIFIC LOW.

POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OVER SW AK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SETS UP IN THE REGION. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY NEAR DILLINGHAM AND MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST BY SAT EVENING INTO THE Y-K DELTA.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ALEUTIANS DRAWING IN MORE LOW CLOUDS BUT
THE SHOWERS SHOULD ABATE UNTIL THE WEEKEND. SO LOOK FOR LOW STRATUS
AND FOG TO BE MAIN CONCERN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
IN THE ALEUTIANS EXPECT A WEAK LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TO
BRING MORE RAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND BUT THE RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL HOLD
OFF ANY MAJOR ADVANCE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT THE SAME
GENERAL PATTERN OVER MAINLAND AK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK
LOWS ROTATING THROUGH THE GULF AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER WE
MIGHT SEE A WARM UP ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL NEXT WEEK IF MODELS HOLD.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120.
FIRE WEATHER...RFW 141.

RNW JUN 07