Small Craft Advisory 496, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT MON JUN 4 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS AND NAM IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE
SYSTEMS IN THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.  GFS
SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH NECP/MPC 12Z ANALYSIS. TUE
SOLUTIONS FOR GULF SYSTEM ARE QUALITATIVELY SIMILAR...LOW DISSIPATES
IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN KODIAK ISLAND.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...POLAR JET REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN 40N
AND 50N WITH 80-100 KT WINDS. JET MAKES A TURN INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA AROUND 125W BUT MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST ON WED AS NEXT SYSTEM
DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...IN THE SOUTHWEST EXPECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AS
REMNANT OF FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CONSIDERABLE SUN WITH
SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON TUE AND WED.

AS LOW IN THE GULF CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD KODIAK...SHOULD SEE
INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST.  THIS
SHOULD PRODUCE MODEST WINDS THROUGH THE TERRAIN GAPS MON NIGHT.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TUE AFTERNOON.

LOW IN CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SLOWLY DISSIPATES OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS
AS IT ROTATES BETWEEN ADAK AND DUTCH HARBOR.  IT FINALLY MOVES OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST ON THU AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MODELS INDICATING A SECOND SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN
THE SOUTHERN GULF ON WED AND MOVING UP OVER KODIAK BY MID DAY ON THU.
STRENGTH SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 985-990 MB.  LOOKING VERY SIMILAR
TO CURRENT SYSTEM.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA ON WED.
LOOKS LIKE THERMAL TROUGH TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ON WED WHICH MIGHT
ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN ZONES.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 350...120...130
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JUN 07