Small Craft Advisory 467, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM ADT SUN MAY 27 2007

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
CYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN BERING
SEA TO CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA. TWO WEAK SURFACE LOWS ARE EMBEDDED ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH...ONE BEING JUST EAST OF KODIAK AND THE
OTHER BEING JUST SOUTH OF THE PRIBILOFS. A SHORTWAVE IS MOVING FROM
EAST TO WEST AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE TROUGH...PRODUCING
ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE IS PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS THIS
MORNING. IT IS HARD TO FIND A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.

THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TODAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...TWO NEW STRONGER LOW
PRESSURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...ONE ENTERING THE GULF OF
ALASKA FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...AND THE OTHER MOVING EAST AND
BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON MONDAY. CYCLONIC FLOW
AND WET WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NEXT WEEK.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS PRESENT OVER THE GULF...WITH MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL. THE WEAK LOW OVER THE GULF WILL DISSIPATE
LATER TODAY...BUT MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECT GENERALLY JUST AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS...NOTHING
HEAVY. PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT DRYING WITH A FEW HOLES IN THE CLOUDS TO
APPEAR MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
NUDGES INTO SOUTHCENTRAL. HOWEVER...A NEW STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE GULF FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL BRING
ENHANCED RAIN TO KODIAK AND THE GULF COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH INCREASED WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING WEST AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
BRINGING MODERATE RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND...PARTICULARLY FROM BETHEL TO ANIAK. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
IS HELPING TO ENHANCE THE RAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH SOME DRYING. SOMEWHAT
MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH LESSER RAIN CHANCES.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PRESENT JUST SOUTH OF SAINT GEORGE THIS
MORNING. ONLY LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED AT THE OBSERVATION
SITES...BUT THERE IS LIKELY A MORE SIGNIFICANT BAND OF RAIN AND WIND
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW EXTENDING FROM WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND SOUTHEAST TO NEAR DUTCH HARBOR. THIS BAND OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE
INTO DUTCH HARBOR TODAY. OVERALL...HOWEVER...THIS WEAK LOW WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND THEN DISSIPATE.
THE BIGGER WEATHER MAKER FOR THE REGION WILL COME FROM A STRONG LOW
WHICH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WITH
RAIN ON MONDAY. THIS STRONG LOW WILL MOVE TO SOUTH OF ADAK TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN FROM THE LOW IMPACTING BASICALLY ALL OF THE
ALEUTIANS AND THE PRIBILOFS BY THEN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND WET WEATHER AFFECTING MOST OF THE
REGION. THE LOW WHICH WAS SOUTH OF ADAK TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN...AND BE
POSITIONED SOUTH OF COLD BAY ON THURSDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH CLOUDY AND WET WEATHER PERSISTING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 350.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FOISY MAY 07