Small Craft Advisory 441, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 151635 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
835 AM ADT TUE MAY 15 2007

CORRECTED SYNOPSIS

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-160200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1005 MB LOW 275 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK DISSIPATES TUE AFTERNOON. 
A NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC LOW INTENSIFIES TO 994 MB WED MORNING 200 NM
SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. THIS LOW MAINTAINS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES 
TO 200 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK WED NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-160200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT TUE MAY 15 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WED...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-160200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT TUE MAY 15 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-160200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
535 AM ADT TUE MAY 15 2007

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-160200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT TUE MAY 15 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-160200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT TUE MAY 15 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WED...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-160200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT TUE MAY 15 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-160200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
535 AM ADT TUE MAY 15 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-160200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT TUE MAY 15 2007

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-160200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT TUE MAY 15 2007

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 152347
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 15 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-161400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 995 MB LOW 525 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK WILL MOVE TO 225 NM SOUTHEAST
OF KODIAK WED AFTERNOON AT 992 MB. THE LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN TO 1000
MB AS IT MOVES TO 400 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK THU AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM SOUTHEAST ALASKA TO THE NORTH GULF
COAST ON WED AND THEN OVERSPREAD THE GULF ON THU AS THE LOW EXITS 
THE REGION.
$$

PKZ120-161400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 15 2007

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-161400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 15 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-161400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 15 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-161400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 15 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-161400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 15 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-161400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 15 2007

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-161400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 15 2007

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO E 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-161400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 15 2007

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-161400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 15 2007

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT TUE MAY 15 2007

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW IS CENTERED WELL SOUTH OF THE AKPEN
THIS MORNING...WITH PERSISTENT RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
BERING AND OVER SOUTHEAST AK. AT THE SURFACE...A PAIR OF LOWS ARE
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WITH RIDGES OVER SE AK AND THE NORTHERN
BERING. AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM KAMCHATKA
ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS INTO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE BLOCKING WEST COAST RIDGE
WILL KEEP THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATING AROUND THE GULF INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE NORTH PACIFIC BETWEEN 40
AND 50N...WITH A FEW WAVES GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE LOW. FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...RAIN OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL END TUE NIGHT AS
THE HIGH PUSHES THE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE AREA. RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

OVER SW AK...THE PRESENCE OF A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PROVIDE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PARTIAL CLEARING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WILL BE WHEN THERMALLY INDUCED LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS WED OVER THE ALASKA RANGE AND KUSKOKWIM MOUNTAINS.
THIS AREA ROTATES SW FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS THU...BUT MOVES NORTHWEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA FRI.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...SHOWERS WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD
TODAY AS THERE IS A BREAK IN THE STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE FLOW. THIS
IS AN INTERRUPTION CAUSED BY THE APPROACH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC LOW
AS IT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE GULF TONIGHT. A SURGE OF SOUTHEAST WIND
WITH THIS LOW WILL BRING A SHOT OF RAIN TO COASTAL AREAS WED WITH
SOME SEEPAGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
THEN SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH SOME SHOWERS INTO THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

THE RIDGE KEEPS PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE WEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SW AK MAY SEE MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITH
MORE INTENSITY AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. THE AK RANGE WILL BECOME
THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION INTO NEXT WEEK SO NORTHERN ZONES 141 AND 145
SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY ACTIVE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS MAY 07