Small Craft Advisory 436, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT SAT MAY 12 2007

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTON SOUND IS
FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD OVER BRISTOL BAY SUNDAY THEN MERGE WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF ALASKA MONDAY. A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW 500 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK WILL STALL AND ROTATE
NORTHWARD AND MERGE WITH THE WESTERN ALASKA UPPER TROUGH ON MONDAY.
A RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH MONDAY OVER THE PANHANDLE AND THE EASTERN
INTERIOR. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  A WEAK SURFACE LOW
WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. A WEAK SURFACE LOW 500 NM
SOUTH OF KODIAK WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY. A
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA FROM ANADYR THROUGH ADAK WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALASKA RANGE
AND NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY SHOULD CONTINUE SAT NIGHT THEN MOVE
SLOWLY WEST OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND NORTHEASTERN BRISTOL BAY
SUN AND SUN NIGHT.  RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN KODIAK AND SPREAD TO THE
WESTERN GULF COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SUN AND SUN NIGHT.
SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH IN TURNAGAIN ARM THE KNIK DRAINAGE AND
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND ARE LIKELY LATE SAT IN ADVANCE OF THE BUILDING
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...RAIN MONDAY ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND IN THE WINDWARD AREAS WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND
SHOWERS IN THE LEE SIDE AREAS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE THE GENERAL
RULE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE GULF
KEEPS THE REGION UNDER BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

IN THE WEST...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL ACROSS THE
EASTERN BERING SEA AND ALASKA PENINSULA IN THE COMING WEEK. DRIER
WEATHER SHOULD BE ON TAP FOR THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF THE WEEK FOR
THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT SHOWERS
TO LINGER ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN THE BERING AS SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING THEN SHIFT TO THE
WESTERN BERING LATER IN THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RHH MAY 07