Small Craft Advisory 417, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT MON MAY 7 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...12Z NAM AND GFS IN AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 42
HOURS...THEREAFTER GFS MAINTAINS A DEEPER GULF OF ALASKA LOW.  SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON THE DEVELOPING  SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN
BERING BEGINNING ON TUESDAY EVENING. OVER ALL GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVED THROUGH
SOUTHCENTRAL THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGED TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF BY WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN BERING
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING CONTINUING INTO BRISTOL BAY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER BRISTOL BAY ZONE AND
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS THIS EVENING
WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN MID-TROPOSPHERIC
TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WHILE NAM CAPE IS WEAK FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS...HENCE EXPECTING SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW BEGINNING TUESDAY
MORNING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST.  THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD PRODUCE
CLOUDS AND PRECIP THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOME COOLER AIR MOVING ONSHORE
FROM THE BERING ON WEDNESDAY.  THIS COULD ENHANCE CONVECTION AND
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

A SHORT LIVED RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS ON TUESDAY...NEXT
FRONT REACHES THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...GFS TENDS TO MOVE SECOND SHORTWAVE INTO BRISTOL
BAY THURSDAY AND CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST ON
FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BERING.  IF THIS
VERIFIES...LOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF ALASKA IS TO FAR SOUTH TO
HAVE ANY IMPACT EXCEPT ON KODIAK ISLAND AND AK PEN...THE REMAINDER OF
THE STATE WILL BE SUNNY AND DRY WITH SEASONABLE OR SLIGHT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MAY 07