Small Craft Advisory 404, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 021916 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1115 AM ADT WED MAY 2 2007

UPDATED ZONES 121 AND 130

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-030200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1003 MB LOW 20 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY WILL MOVE INTO BRISTOL BAY
AND WEAKEN WED AFTERNOON. A WEAK HIGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF
COAST WED AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THU.
$$

PKZ120-030200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT WED MAY 2 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-030200-
RESURRECTION BAY
1115 AM ADT WED MAY 2 2007

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-030200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT WED MAY 2 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-030200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT WED MAY 2 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-030200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
1115 AM ADT WED MAY 2 2007

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-030200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT WED MAY 2 2007

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-030200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT WED MAY 2 2007

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 15 KT OR LESS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-030200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT WED MAY 2 2007

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-030200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT WED MAY 2 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 1 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST
60 TO 72 HOURS. AFTER THIS THERE IS A BIT OF A DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE
NAM AND THE GFS WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. GFS
PUSHES THE LOW IN FASTER WHILE THE NAM HOLD BACK. OVERALL PATTERN
SUGGESTS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT THAT THE GFS HAS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER MAINLAND ALASKA INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
TRY TO BUILD INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WILL NOT
REMAIN VERY LONG. A SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES OVER KODIAK ISLAND THIS EVENING AND INTO BRISTOL BAY BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SOME CONVECTION BEGINNING
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM MOUNTAINS AND AREAS JUST
NORTH OF THEM.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE GULF LOW IS BRING RAIN TO THE NORTH GULF
COAST OVERNIGHT AND WILL ALSO BRING MORE RAIN TO KODIAK ISLAND AS IT
MOVES OVERHEAD. SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE BRISTOL BAY REGION AS THE
LOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA WEDNESDAY. STRATUS IN THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT BUT MAY DIMINISH SOME WEDNESDAY WITH
GREATER VERTICAL MIXING DUE TO THE LOW MOVING INTO BRISTOL BAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM
MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO LONG TERM THINKING. COPPER
RIVER AREA WILL SEE MORE INSTABILITY LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A SHORT
WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA. A WEAK RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

MAY 07