Small Craft Advisory 401, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 1 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST
60 TO 72 HOURS. AFTER THIS THERE IS A BIT OF A DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE
NAM AND THE GFS WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. GFS
PUSHES THE LOW IN FASTER WHILE THE NAM HOLD BACK. OVERALL PATTERN
SUGGESTS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT THAT THE GFS HAS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER MAINLAND ALASKA INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
TRY TO BUILD INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WILL NOT
REMAIN VERY LONG. A SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES OVER KODIAK ISLAND THIS EVENING AND INTO BRISTOL BAY BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SOME CONVECTION BEGINNING
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM MOUNTAINS AND AREAS JUST
NORTH OF THEM.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE GULF LOW IS BRING RAIN TO THE NORTH GULF
COAST OVERNIGHT AND WILL ALSO BRING MORE RAIN TO KODIAK ISLAND AS IT
MOVES OVERHEAD. SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE BRISTOL BAY REGION AS THE
LOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA WEDNESDAY. STRATUS IN THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT BUT MAY DIMINISH SOME WEDNESDAY WITH
GREATER VERTICAL MIXING DUE TO THE LOW MOVING INTO BRISTOL BAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM
MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO LONG TERM THINKING. COPPER
RIVER AREA WILL SEE MORE INSTABILITY LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A SHORT
WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA. A WEAK RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

MAY 07