Small Craft Advisory 394, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT SAT APR 28 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GENERAL SHORT RANGE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE WITHIN REASON AND IN FAIR AGREEMENT. LONG RANGE GFS
SHOWS MAJOR SHIFT FROM 00Z RUN YESTERDAY. NEW RUN SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE. THE END RESULT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENING AND SLOWING
LOW APPROACHING THE GULF OF ALASKA THU NIGHT/FRI.

.UPPER AIR...SHORT WAVE OVER SW AK WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS N TONIGHT.
SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT AND SHIFTS TO

THE NORTH GULF COAST/SE ALASKA SUN. LOW CENTER NEAR THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS MOVES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA MON AND BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY.

.EAST...SPRING/SUMMER TYPE PATTERN IS SETTING UP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA. WEAK THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL HOLD THROUGH MON AND EVEN STRENGTHEN SOME WITH WARMING 850 MB
TEMPS. AT SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTH GULF IN
ADVANCE OF WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING NORTH SUN. RESULT WILL BE
GUSTING SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS TURNAGAIN ARM AND MAT VALLEY (KNIK
ARM) DURING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS SUN/MON. GUSTY WINDS
ALONG WITH LOW RH VALUES IN THE MAT VALLEY COULD POTENTIALLY REACH
MARGINAL RED FLAG STATUS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS
SUN/MON. A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS LIKELY OVER INLAND
AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL. WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTH GULF SUN
WILL BRING RAIN TO KODIAK LATE TONIGHT AND GULF COASTAL LOCATIONS
SUN. EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH SOME RAIN OVER THE GULF INTO MON.

.WEST...UNSTABLE CONDITION WITH THERMAL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE SW
INTERIOR. EXPECT AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS REASONABLE THROUGH MON. LOWER 980S CENTER OVER
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SHIFTS MOVES WELL SOUTH OF THE EASTERN AK PEN
SUN EVENING AND WEAKENS. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH WILL ELONGATE EAST
WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION MAKING INTO SW ALASKA. BRISK WINDS ACROSS
THE AK PEN WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. NORTHERLY
WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ON BACKSIDE OF BERING SEA CENTER
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND REMAIN FAIRLY BRISK THROUGH SUN BEFORE
DIMINISHING SUN NIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120, 130, 132, 138.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RMC APR 07