Small Craft Advisory 392, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT SAT APR 28 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
IN THE SHORT TERM THE MODEL CONTINUE HAVE THE SAME GENERAL IDEA AS TO
WHAT HAPPENS. THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCE WITH THE HANDLING OF
THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE ALEUTIANS AND THE DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING OF
A TRIPLE POINT LOW. THE OUTCOME BY SUNDAY IF VERY CLOSE WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE FRONT
ENTERING THE GULF. AFTER THAT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
THROUGH MONDAY. BOTH EAST AND WEST USED GFS AS IT HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST THREE RUNS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER MAINLAND ALASKA.
THE LOW IN THE GULF CONTINUES TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND SLOWLY
WEAKEN. IT WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE NEAR OF YAKUTAT BY EARLY SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA BY MONDAY. BEYOND THAT MAINLAND ALASKA CONTINUE TO
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD TROUGH THE WEEK. A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH WILL EXTENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTION OF KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
ISOLATED MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN KUSKOKWIM MOUNTAINS.  ELSEWHERE IN
SOUTHWEST THERE WILL BE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.  THE MARINE
LAYER OVER BRISTOL BAY IS PUSHING INLAND ALONG THE COAST AND MAY
CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOR MOST OF THIS
MORNING. OVER SOUTHCENTRAL EXPECT MUCH OF THE SAME WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. OUT WEST THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
ALEUTIANS WILL BRING RAIN TO MOST AREA TODAY AND SNOW AND RAIN
TONIGHT. THE PRIBILOFS WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW TODAY WITH LIKELY
SNOW TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...BROAD LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER
MAINLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK A
RIDGE IN THE BERING SEA MAY TRY TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE MAINLAND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 132 175.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

APR 07