Small Craft Advisory 366, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 200111 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT THU APR 19 2007

CORRECTED SYNOPSIS.

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-201400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TO GIVE WAY TO A FRONT
MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE GULF TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL NOT MOVE INTO
THE NORTHEAST GULF BUT REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF FRI
THEN DISSIPATE SAT. A 985 MB LOW 450 NM SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK TONIGHT
WILL WEAKEN TO 991 MB FRI NIGHT 450 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK THEN
DISSIPATE SAT.
$$

PKZ120-201400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT THU APR 19 2007

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-201400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT THU APR 19 2007

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-201400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT THU APR 19 2007

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-201400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT THU APR 19 2007

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-201400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT THU APR 19 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-201400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT THU APR 19 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-201400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT THU APR 19 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-201400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT THU APR 19 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-201400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT THU APR 19 2007

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT THU APR 19 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
NAM GFS AND UKMET ALL INITIALIZED WELL. GFS PREFERRED DUE ITS
CONSISTENT POSITIVE PERFORMANCE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.

.UPPER LEVELS...
PRIMARY LOW CENTER AT 500 MB NEAR 66N 179W WILL SHIFT TO NEAR 79N
159W BY SAT MORNING. SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL LOWS NEAR 50N 162E AND 51N
173W GRADUALLY MIGRATE EASTWARD. HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER EASTERN
GULF AND MAINLAND ALASKA BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE REPLACED BY A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BY SAT AFTERNOON.

.SURFACE EAST OF 165W...
REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONT LINGERING OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE
GULF ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. NEXT OCCLUDED FRONT
PROGGED TO PASS OVER KODIAK ISLAND LATE TONIGHT THEN STALL OUT OVER
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY NIGHT. MORE RAIN SNOW
AND GALE FORCE WINDS FOR KODIAK ISLAND AND THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST.

.SURFACE 165W WESTWARD...
A 980 MB LOW NEAR 49N 174W WILL BECOME A 986 MB LOW NEAR 53N 155W FRI
AFTERNOON THEN DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED
FRONT EXTENDS IN ARC ACROSS ALEUTIAN CHAIN. EAST TO NORTHEAST GALES
FROM DUTCH HARBOR TO ADAK TODAY. WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWARD AND
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING STARTING THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION BEGINNING
AS MIXED SNOW AND RAIN TODAY...TURNING TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP THE STORM TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND MAINLAND ALASKA. CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH AT
LEAST 120 HOURS. SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED TO
ALEUTIAN CHAIN...KODIAK ISLAND...AND GULF COAST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 150 155 165 170 172 175 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB APR 07