Small Craft Advisory 342, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 131144
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT FRI APR 13 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-140200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 978 MB LOW 400 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WEAKENS TO 1002 MB SAT
AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES INLAND NEAR KLAWOCK. A WEATHER FRONT FROM A
NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF SAT AND SAT NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ150-140200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM ADT FRI APR 13 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 15 KT. 
SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS BECOMING E 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-140200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM ADT FRI APR 13 2007

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO E 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-140200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM ADT FRI APR 13 2007

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

PKZ165-140200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT FRI APR 13 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 5 FT.  
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-140200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM ADT FRI APR 13 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS.   
.TONIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS.  
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 15 KT.  
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-140200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM ADT FRI APR 13 2007

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO E 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-140200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM ADT FRI APR 13 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS BECOMING E 20 KT. 
SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-140200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM ADT FRI APR 13 2007

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO NE 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-140200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM ADT FRI APR 13 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-140200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM ADT FRI APR 13 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-140200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM ADT FRI APR 13 2007

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT IN 
ICE FREE WATERS. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 

$$

PKZ179-140200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM ADT FRI APR 13 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT IN ICE FREE
WATERS. 
.SAT NIGHT SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT THU APR 12 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THERE ARE SEVERAL LOWS IN SERIES THAT WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA
OVER THE NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST COUPLE
OF DAYS BUT BY LATE SATURDAY THE GFS AND NAM ARE BOTH A BIT FASTER
THAN THE UKMET WITH A LOW SOUTH OF THE AKPEN. THE THIRD LOW
APPROACHES THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SUNDAY AND THEN...ACCORDING TO THE
MULTIPLE RUNS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE...LOSES DETAIL IN THE MIDST OF THE
SPAGHETTI PLOT. TO MAINTAIN SOME SEMBLANCE OF CONTINUITY THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS THINKING WITH THE OOZ GFS MODEL
RUN. IN THE EARLY PERIODS THIS MAKES LITTLE CHANGE...BUT AS THE
WEEKEND PROGRESSES THE BLEND RESULTS IN MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO A
FORECAST THAT HAD STAGNATED DUE TO PERSISTENT UNCERTAINTY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

AT UPPER LEVELS OUR CORNER OF THE HEMISPHERE FEATURES A CUT-OFF LOW
WELL SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND AND AN OPEN TROUGH OVER THE EXTREME
WESTERN BERING. THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE LOWER 48 WEST COAST
WITH WEAK RIDGES SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND OVER THE NORTHERN
ALCAN REGION.

AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN FEATURE IS THE TIGHTLY WOUND LOW SOUTH OF
KODIAK ISLAND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA WITH
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH
SUNDAY. AS THE SECOND LOW PASSES FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE AKPEN ON
SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT AND GALES WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN BERING AND
ALEUTIANS AS FAR EAST AS BRISTOL BAY.

OVER SOUTHWEST AK...A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SAT BEFORE A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS OCCURS SUN.

IN THE EAST...THE WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SOUTH OF
KODIAK WILL BRING RAIN TO KODIAK ON NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT. A
WIND SHIFT TURNS PRECIPITATION TO SHOWERS WHICH DIMINISH BY FRIDAY
MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH
SAT.

SINCE THE FIRST LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF...THE NORTH
COAST WILL RECEIVE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ALONG WITH
SMALL CRAFT AND GALES AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND. THE DECAYING FRONT
WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INLAND...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CHUGACH AND
KENAI MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE THEN POSSIBLE
INLAND FRI AND SAT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...AMIDST THE UNCERTAINTY THE THIRD LOW SEEMS TO BE
TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS MON WITH SMALL CRAFT AND GALES
LIMITED TO COASTAL WATERS OF THE CHAIN. BY MID WEEK THE LOW MOVES
INTO BRISTOL BAY WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST AK
TUE AND WED. IN THE EAST...MOST ACTIVITY REMAINS TO THE SOUTH SO
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY EXCEPT FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 120 130 132 138 150 155
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS APR 07