Small Craft Advisory 324, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT THU APR 5 2007

.DISCUSSION...SYNOPTIC SCALE MODEL INITIALIZATIONS AND FORECAST
TRENDS REASONABLE OVERALL. MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEALING WITH
RAPIDLY MOVING STORM CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS QUITE A SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TO CENTER MOVING SOUTH OF
THE GULF OFFSHORE MON. NEW RUN TENDS TO GO WITH TWO WEEK CENTERS AS
OPPOSED TO ONE STRONGER CENTER. GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT HAS LITTLE
AFFECT ON MAINLAND FORECAST. FOR OFFSHORE WILL HOLD WITH PREVIOUS
GRIDS THIS TIME-FRAME.

.EAST...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EAST AS UPPER
CUT-OFF CENTER MOVES TO THE AK-PEN AND SENDS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
ACROSS THE GULF. STRONG 980S SURFACE LOW S OF MIDDLETON ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON MOVES OVER BRISTOL BAY THIS EVENING. STORM FORCE WINDS
CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF WILL WEAKEN BY EVENING. STRONG PRESSURE RISES
ON THE BACKSIDE OF ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL PRODUCE FAIRLY STRONG GAP
WINDS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW
WITH LOW PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY SOME SHOWERS ACTIVITY. NEXT CENTER MOVES
TO JUST SOUTH OF THE KENAI PENINSULA IN THE 970S FRI EVENING. THIS
CENTER MOVES RAPIDLY INTO THE SW INTERIOR EARLY SAT. EXPECT RAIN AND
SNOW OVER MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL AND BRISK WINDS WITH LOW PASSAGE.

.WEST...LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA OVER OVER SW AK TONIGHT. EXPECT
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF SW AK
TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS OVER BRISTOL BAY SHOULD END TONIGHT WITH
PASSAGE OF LOW CENTER. EXPECT GENERAL OFFSHORE FLOW TO HOLD OVER SW
AK FRI BEFORE NEXT LOW MOVES OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA FRI NIGHT AND
SAT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120, 125, 130, 138, 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC APR 07