Small Craft Advisory 302, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT FRI MAR 30 2007

.DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER THE WESTERN BERING AND SE
ALASKA WITH A RIDGE IN-BETWEEN CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER
PATTERN...WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS TRANSLATES TO MORE OF THE SAME IN TERMS OF BOTH WX (OR LACK
THEREOF) AND TEMPS. A VERY WEAK SFC LOW NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND IS
MAINTAINING ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT TO KEEP GAP WINDS GOING FOR ONE
MORE DAY.

A DECAYING FRONT FROM THE LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING WILL APPROACH THE
SW COAST EARLY SAT...BUT BOTH WINDS AND MOISTURE WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
LESS THAN WHAT THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS EXPERIENCED. THE MAIN ISSUE ALONG
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG UNDERNEATH THE HIGH.
THE FOG THREAT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AS THE
HIGH SLIDES EAST.

A SECOND STORM WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH TO ONE OUT IN THE BERING
RIGHT NOW OVER THE WEEKEND. EFFECTS OF THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL AGAIN AFFECT MAINLY THE ISLANDS.

THE WX PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE MUDDLED INTO NEXT WEEK AS A
TRANSITION TO A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC
THREATENS TO DEVELOP. WE SAW THIS HINT IN THE MODELS A MONTH AGO
WHICH NEVER MATERIALIZED SO I AM NOT CONVINCED THAT THIS SOLUTION
WILL RING TRUE EITHER.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 170 172 175 176 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JCA MAR 07