Small Craft Advisory 291, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM ADT MON MAR 26 2007

.DISCUSSION...MODELS STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THE DYNAMIC LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE BARREN ISLANDS AREA BUT THEY ALL GENERALLY COME BACK
TOGETHER IN THE GULF BY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION
AND TERRAIN FEATURES THE NAM PROBABLY HAS THE BEST SOLUTION FOR THE
FIRST TWELVE HOURS OF THE FORECAST.

UPPER LEVELS...A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA CONTINUES TO
DIG SOUTHEASTWARD AND WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA
TUESDAY. A STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA
OVERNIGHT AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE
ISLANDS.

SURFACE...THERE ARE TWO SIGNIFICANT LOW BRING WEATHER TO SOUTHERN
ALASKA TODAY. THE FIRST IS THE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA WHICH IS THE
ONE THAT WAS IN THE BERING SEA YESTERDAY. THIS LOW HAS NOT WEAKENED
AS QUICKLY AS ANTICIPATED AND HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF LIFT AND WINDS
IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND NEARBY AREAS. BLOWING SNOW ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR ZONES 155 AND 161. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW IS BRINGING BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS TO PARTS OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA...EASTERN ALEUTIANS...AND
PRIBILOF ISLANDS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS THE LOW WEAKENS
WHEN IT LOSES THE SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
A 997 MB LOW NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON IS THE OTHER
SIGNIFICANT LOW. THE LOW FORMED ALONG A TRIPLE POINT IN THE BARREN
ISLANDS AREA AND WILL PUSH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA OVERNIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVE SOUTHEAST. WHILE SOME SNOW FELL IN KODIAK LAST
NIGHT AND SOME MORE OVER THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA TODAY THE FRONT
WILL STALL OUT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT AND THEN HEAD
SOUTH AGAIN TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST OVERNIGHT BUT CLEARING OVER A GOOD PART OF
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA TUESDAY.

LONGER RANGE PROJECTIONS STILL SHOW AN WARM CORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA OVER THE WEEKEND. SHOULD THIS OCCUR
IT WILL BRING NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 181 185 195.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 138 150 155 165 170 171 172 175 176 179.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 125 130 132 138 141 150 155 165 170
171 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

MAR 07