Small Craft Advisory 284, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
615 AM ADT SAT MAR 24 2007

.DISCUSSION...
SOME SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN GFS AND NAM BUT OVERALL IN FAIR
AGREEMENT. MODEL OF CHOICE CONTINUES TO BE GFS GIVEN RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY.

UPPER LEVELS...SHORT WAVE AXIS ALONG ALASKA RANGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH
KODIAK ISLAND AND ANOTHER IN THE VICINITY OF 170W. SHORT WAVES WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING
TROF OVER BRISTOL BAY BY MONDAY. ANCHOR UPPER LOW BEGINNING TREK FROM
EASTERN SIBERIA SOUTHEAST TOWARD BRISTOL BAY AND EVENTUALLY THE GULF
BY TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR WEATHER
ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH MID WEEK.

SOUTHCENTRAL SURFACE...A 990 MB LOW HANGING TOUGH JUST EAST OF
RESURRECTION BAY EARLY THIS MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER MOST
OF SOUTHCENTRAL AS TO BE EXPECTED WITH UPPER TROF STILL TO THE WEST.
PWS LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY ALLOWING DRY AIR TO FILTER
BEHIND IT AT ALL LEVELS RESULTING IN A PLEASANT EVENING. THE EASTERN
BERING SEA SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE ALASKA RANGE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND BRING SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP TO SPEAK OF. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
INVADE SOUTHCENTRAL SUNDAY NIGHT AND WITH IT THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW.
STILL TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT AMOUNTS IN THE PUBLIC FORECASTS BUT
SUSPECT THIS WILL BE ANOTHER LIGHT SNOW EVENT FOR THE MOST POPULATED
AREAS IN SOUTHCENTRAL.

SURFACE WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...ONE MORE NICE DAY FOR THE INTERIOR
BEFORE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE. LIGHT SNOW LIKELY WITH
THIS SYSTEM BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS THE LIMITING FACTORS ARE
THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND LACK OF MOISTURE. DECENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ALONG THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. AGAIN...LOOKING AT 4TH AND
5TH PERIODS SO NOT TOO MUCH DETAIL IN THE PUBLIC FORECASTS CURRENTLY
BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THAT POSSIBILITY DURING UPCOMING SHIFTS.

EXTENDED...BRIEFLY...MODELS CONTINUE WITH A MUCH WARMER TREND LATE
NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130 155 165 170 172 175 176.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 130 132 138 150 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB MAR 07