Small Craft Advisory 260, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT SUN MAR 18 2007

.DISCUSSION...

IN THE SHORT TERM THE GFS IS THE PREFERRED MODEL THIS MORNING. BOTH
MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT TO BEGIN WITH BUT THE GFS IS A
LITTLE SLOWER MOVING THE LOW TO THE SOUTH WHICH KEEP PRECIP IN THE
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA TODAY.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN HAS THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA
MOVING UP INTO THE INTERIOR AND MERGING WITH THE MAIN LOW OVER THE
ARCTIC AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GULF ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH OVER EASTERN RUSSIA WILL RETROGRADE RESULTING IN
MORE COLD AIR DROPPING OVER THE BERING SEA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AS THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH REDEVELOPS AND DRIFTS EAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

IN THE EAST THE SHORT TERM PROBLEM IS WITH THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN
THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA.  THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE
ON PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH POSSIBLE FLURRIES EXTENDING INTO
THE ANCHORAGE BOW. THE NAM KEEPS THE PRECIP OFFSHORE.

OUT WEST THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD AND DRY WILL INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN IS WITH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. A 982 MB
LOW SOUTH WILL ROTATE TO THE WEST AND CONTINUE TO DEEPEN. WINDS AHEAD
OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH WARNING LEVELS TODAY
AND LAST INTO TONIGHT FOR AREAS WEST OF ADAK WHILE STORM FORCE WINDS
WILL SPREAD IN TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE TO SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY
TUESDAY BUT THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE HERE. LEANING RIGHT NOW
TOWARD THE GFS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 191.
MARINE...STORMS 175 176
         GALES 172
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 130 179
FIRE WEATHER...

MAR 07