Small Craft Advisory 230, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST WED MAR 7 2007

.DISCUSSION...WINTERY WEATHER HAS RETURNED WITH A VENGEANCE TO SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA. SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THU MORNING AS THE SFC LOW
CURRENTLY NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND SWINGS SLOWLY WEST THEN DIVES SOUTH
TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND ON THU. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STEERING
CURRENTS ALOFT...THE LOW WILL PINWHEEL AROUND IN THE GULF WITH
SEVERAL WEAKER LOWS GRAZING THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SEVERAL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
SNOW PILES UP AND WINDS BLOW THE SNOW AROUND. THE TIME OF MOST
INTENSE SNOW FOR ANCHORAGE AND THE KNAI PENINSULA WILL BE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW ENTERS WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AND ASSOCIATED LIFT IS MAXIMIZED. THE NAM MODEL HAS BEEN
REMARKABLY CONSISTENT WITH QPF TOTALS OF AROUND 0.5 FOR THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL TRANSLATING TO UPWARDS OF 10 INCHES OF SNOW USING A
20:1 SNOW RATIO. THIS TOTAL SEEMS TO BE OVERDONE SEEING AS THOUGH WE
DID NOT MEASURE UP TO THE MODEL OUTPUT AS OF 12Z THIS MORNING.
REGARDLESS...TOTALS RANGING FROM 6 TO 14 INCHES...DEPENDING ON YOUR
ELEVATION STILL SEEMS REASONABLE.

FURTHER WEST...MODERATELY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE SOUTHWEST
COAST AND EASTERN BERING MEANS CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION SHOWERS AND
GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN ON THE AKPENN. THE
RIDGE OUT OVER THE WESTERN BERING KEEPS THAT AREA RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER WISE UNTIL A FRONT TRIES BARRELING IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND. EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE IS STILL IN QUESTION AS
THE RIDGE SHOWS NO SIGN OF LOOSENING ITS GRIP.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD 125 131.
MARINE...STORM 150.
         GALE 155 160 165 180 170 120 121 129 130 132 138.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 150 155 165 170 171 179 120
                              121 125 129 130 132 138 140 141.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JCA MAR 07