Small Craft Advisory 228, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST TUE MAR 6 2007

.DISCUSSION...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
TROUGH OVER THE STATE EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND A RIDGE
OVER THE BERING. AS LOW PRESSURE NEAR 50N 140W MOVES NORTH INTO THE
GULF LATER TODAY...CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ALONG THE
COAST. THE TRACK OF THE LOW INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY WED
AFTERNOON MEANS THAT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD AS FAR EAST AS ANCHORAGE AND
THE KENAI PENINSULA LATER WED AND CONTINUE INTO THURS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SITUATED WEST OF COOK INLET AND THE LOW POSITION IN THE
WESTERN GULF ARE POSITIVES FOR SNOW FOR THE ANCHORAGE AREA. DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAY TEND TO
DELAY THE ONSET OF SNOW SOMEWHAT...BUT THIS INFLUENCE DOES NOT SEEM
STRONG ENOUGH TO NEGATE THE FACT THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY.
THE LOW DRIFTS SOUTH TOWARD WEEKS END SLOWLY PULLING THE PRECIP AWAY
FROM THE COAST...BUT A MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT HOLDS ON
WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH FAVORED N-S CHANNELS. WITH AN
EXPECTED FRESH SNOWCOVER...BLOWING SNOW MAY BECOME A BIT OF AN ISSUE
AT TIMES.

FURTHER TO THE WEST...HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL
HOLD TIGHT OVER THE BERING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW
IN THE GULF AND THE HIGH OVER THE BERING WILL ALLOW THE GUSTY WINDS
SOUTH OF THE AKPENN TO CONTINUE. AS THE HIGH RETROGRADES WEST WITH
TIME...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE PROMOTING SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE EASTERN BERING UNDER A BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE SAT/EARLY SUN...BUT THE EFFECTS WILL BE
ANYTHING FROM FAR REACHING AS THE HIGH SQUASHES THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF
THE CHAIN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 150.
         GALE 155 160 165 170 120 121 129 130 132 138.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 150 160 165 120 121 125
                              129 130 132 138 140 141.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JCA MAR 07