Small Craft Advisory 222, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AST SUN MAR 4 2007

.DISCUSSION...GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE RETURNING TO SOUTHERN ALASKA.
THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN ALASKA THAT STRETCHES INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL NOT MOVE MUCH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
COMBINATION OF DROPPING PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A COLD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO INCREASE WHILE KEEPING
TEMPERATURES DOWN. WINDS CHILL ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT IN THE
SUSITNA VALLEY NORTH OF TALKEETNA AS WELL AS THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY.
A HIGH WIND WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE MATANUSKA VALLEY FOR
MONDAY. THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING AND COLDER AIR
IS MOVING IN THERE IS STILL SOME DOUBT WHETHER WINDS WILL COME UP
TO WIND WARNING CRITERIA DUE TO THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT ORIGINATES IN THE YUKON AND THEN MOVES
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING IS FARTHER
WEST THEN THE ONE LAST WEEK. THIS IS KEEPING THE STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL WINDS WEST OF THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND IS A LARGE REASON WHY
THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL SEE THE STRONGER WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WHEN OFTEN THEY ARE PROTECTED BY THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION. THE
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS ALSO THE REASON WHY THERE ARE NO
WIND WATCHES OUT FOR ZONES 131 OR 135. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
PASS ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND THEREFORE THERE WILL NOT BE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR WARNING LEVEL WINDS.

THINGS WILL GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING IN THE EASTERN SECTION OF
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE A
BIT INCONSISTENT BUT ARE ALL BRINGING A FAIRLY STRONG LOW INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE FORECAST TRACKS
AND INTENSITIES ARE VARYING QUITE A BIT AT THIS TIME BUT IT BEARS
WATCHING AS A STRONG LOW IN THE GULF WILL KEEP WINDS CRANKED UP
FOR A WHILE IN THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE GULF COAST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH 111.
MARINE...GALES 121 129 130 132 138 140 150 155 160 165 170.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 120 121 125 129 130 138 140
                              141 150 155 160 165.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

MAR 07