Small Craft Advisory 221, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST SAT MAR 3 2007

.DISCUSSION...
IN THE EAST...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE RIDGE
IN THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE PERSISTS...AS DOES THE TROUGH IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE HAS DIMINISHED OVER MOST OF
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AND WINDS HAVE COME DOWN FOR THE TIME. THE ONLY
SHORT TERM SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
WILL BE THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE RETURN OF
GUSTY NORTH WINDS SUNDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WILL
CHANGE SO THAT THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE
ARCTIC COAST SUNDAY. CURRENTLY THE HIGH IS SPLIT WITH CENTERS IN THE
BERING SEA AND IN THE YUKON TERRITORIES. THIS CHANGE WILL CAUSE A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AS WELL AS ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR FROM
THE NORTH. THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY THEY
SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE A FEW DAYS AGO.

IN THE WEST...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE WESTWARD AS A COLD UPPER LOW DESCENDS
OUT OF THE ARCTIC AND OVER THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST. THIS WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE WINDS AT THAT TIME. UNTIL THEN SKIES SHOULD
BE MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING WHEN A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. THIS WAVE SHOULD MOSTLY DISSIPATE
BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY.

MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT. PREFER THE NAM IN THE WAY IT
HANDLES THE SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TONIGHT.
THERE IS ALSO A BIT OF A DIFFERENCE IN A LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA TUESDAY WITH THE NAM BEING MUCH FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN THE
GFS. PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION IN THE GULF AT THIS TIME FOR TUESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 175 176. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 120 130 150 160 165.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

MAR 07