Small Craft Advisory 180, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
415 PM AST MON FEB 19 2007

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

UPPER AIR...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE
MCKENZIE DELTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL INCREASE THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
AND ALASKA MAINLAND AND SHOULD KEEP WEATHER FRONT OVER THE BERING SEA
FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.

NEAR SURFACE...
EAST DOMAIN...
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SPREADING FROM WESTERN CANADA IN THE
SOUTHCENTRAL INTERIOR WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN AND SUSITNA VALLEY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. STRONG
WINDS BLOWING OUT OF THE MOUNTAIN PASSES ALONG THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS
AND THE ALASKA/ALEUTIAN RANGES WILL INCREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AND
SLOWLY DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
WILL DEVELOP IN THE WINDIER AREAS. VERY LOW WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES
WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE AND THOMPSON PASS.

OTHERWISE NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 2
DAYS.

WEST DOMAIN...
A LOW EAST OF THE PRIBILOFS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA THIS EVENING AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC LATE
TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS
WILL END EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

A STRONG WEATHER OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
THE WESTERN BERING SEA TUESDAY AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
BERING WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING GALE TO STORM FORCE
WINDS INTO WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT WHICH WILL WEAKEN TO MOSTLY GALS
OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. GALES WILL
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TUESDAY NIGHT.

NORTHERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL KEEP CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
REGION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THOMPSON PASS AND THE COPPER RIVER
         DELTA.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...121 176
         GALE WARNING...120 125 129 130 132 138 140 150 155 170 171
                        172 175
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...120 121 125 129 130 138 140
                                        141 150 160 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM FEB 07