Small Craft Advisory 169, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST SAT FEB 17 2007

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA IS SLOWING DOWN...AND WILL BEGIN
TO FILL TODAY. ANOTHER LOW IS SPINNING UP NEAR THE DATE LINE AT 40
NORTH LATITUDE ALONG THE JET STREAM...WHICH IS NOW POINTED NORTHEAST
TOWARD ALASKA. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE IS OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AND THE
REMNANTS OF A LOW CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL.

A TRIPLE POINT LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR KODIAK TONIGHT...BUT
THIS SHOULD BE WEAK AND WILL QUICKLY TRANSIT THE NORTHERN GULF
SUNDAY. THE MAIN LOW TO NOTE IS THE ONE SPINNING UP ALONG THE JET.
IT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF BY MONDAY. AT THIS TIME THE BERING LOW WILL MOVE EAST
AS WELL AND A TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER ALASKA. BY TUESDAY
THE PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE NEARLY COMPLETE...WITH A TROUGH OVER
ALASKA...A RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA...AND A TROUGH OVER THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW AT ALL LEVELS. VERY STRONG WINDS LIKELY
IN FAVORED LOCATIONS SUCH AS THOMPSON PASS AND THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE
NORTHERN GULF.

VERY COLD AIR WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER ALASKA BY MID WEEK...AND
CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE FORECASTS AND MOST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER ALASKA
POSSIBLY FOR THE REST OF THE MONTH...A GENTLE REMINDER THAT WINTER
IS NOT OVER YET.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 165 170 172 175 176 179 180 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG FEB 07