Small Craft Advisory 150, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AST SAT FEB 10 2007

.DISCUSSION...
IN THE EAST...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE INTERIOR
OF THE STATE STRENGTHENS. THIS RIDGE WILL FINALLY DISSIPATE MONDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA.
FOG AND STRATUS REMAIN AN ISSUE OVER A LARGE PART OF THE AREA. THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN AND EASTERN PART OF COOL INLET HAVE A LARGE AMOUNT
OF FOG AND STRATUS. MOST OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY HAS CLEARED OUT
POSSIBLY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INCREASING THE VERTICAL MIXING
OF THE AIR. GUSTY WINDS THROUGH PASSES HAVE CLEARED OUT THE VALDEZ
SEWARD AND WHITTIER AREAS.

IN THE WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
WILL DEVELOP INTO A CUT OFF LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SUNDAY.
THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE BERING SEA BY TUESDAY AND
DISPLACE A WEAK RIDGE THAT IS IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA. THE SURFACE
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IS SOUTH OF ATKA AND WILL BECOME A
COMPLEX LOW THAT REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS UNTIL AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS
BRING GUSTY WINDS UP TO 55 MPH TODAY. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WHILE THE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN OVER
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR THE ATMOSPHERE
TO COOL OVER THIS AREA WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AND TURN
ALL PRECIPITATION TO SNOW OVER THE ALEUTIANS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
IN THE MAINLAND PART OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE
AN ISSUE THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

THE JET STREAM WILL REMAIN A NON FACTOR OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS BRINGS IN A STRONGER LOW TO THE GULF
THAN DOES THE NAM AND THE GFS SOLUTION IS PREFERRED IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA AREA PAST MONDAY. IN THE WEST THE GFS SOLUTION HAS BEEN
WORKING BETTER WITH THE DUTCH HARBOR WINDS TODAY. THE MOVEMENT OF THE
LOW COMPLEX ON THE GFS ALSO IS PREFERRED AS THE NAM BRINGS THE
SURFACE LOW TOO FAR WEST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 150 170 171 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FEB 07