Small Craft Advisory 146, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AST THU FEB 8 2007

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN THIS RIDGE
WEAKENS AS A TROUGH ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST BEGINS TO DESCEND INTO THE
INTERIOR OF THE STATE.

THE UPPER LEVELS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE ARE INFLUENCED BY
BOTH THE RIDGE IN THE GULF AND A LOW OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA.
THIS IS BRINGING WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE MAINLAND SECTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. THE KAMCHATKA LOW WILL BECOME A TROUGH THAT DIG
OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND AND THAT WILL CAUSE THE UPPER
FLOW IN THAT AREA TO WEAKEN AND BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

NEAR THE SURFACE IN THE EAST...A WEAK TROUGH WITH A WEDGE OF WARM AIR
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE HAS CAUSED SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE NEAR COOK
INLET THIS MORNING. WHILE THE FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS LIKELY STOPPED
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA FOR ANOTHER DAY OR
TWO.

IN THE WEST...THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS ALSO HAD A BOUT OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE THIS MORNING. THIS AREA HAS MOVED THROUGH AND LEFT FOG BEHIND
IT. A WEAK FRONT JUST WEST OF BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE BETHEL AREA AND NEAR THE
BRISTOL BAY COAST OVERNIGHT BUT THEN SHOULD DISSIPATE FRIDAY MORNING.
A WEATHER FONT NEAR ADAK IS ALSO MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD BUT IT WILL
ELONGATE AND QUICKLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW CENTRAL
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD FROM NEAR ATTU TO KAMCHATKA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD ALIGNMENT FROM THE 12Z RUN THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER
THAT THERE IS A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE MOVEMENT OF A LOW
DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR. SOLUTIONS ARE NOT DRASTICALLY
DIFFERENT BUT ENOUGH TO GIVE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST FOR
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

FEB 07