Small Craft Advisory 1103, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST SAT DEC 29 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. ALL HAVE MOVED THE TRACK OF THE
ALEUTIAN LOW A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BRINGING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO THE AREA OF STRONG WINDS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA HAS DRIFTED A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY PROGGED. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
STILL PERSIST ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN KENAI
PENINSULA. LOW NEAR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN
BEFORE AND IS MOVING SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THE LOW
IS ALSO KEEPING THE RIDGE OVER BRISTOL BAY FROM BUILDING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL AK AND THE GULF...
A 993 MB LOW 100 MILES SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL MOVE EAST TO 40
MILES SOUTHWEST OF YAKUTAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON THEN WILL DISSIPATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SHOWERS OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND SOUTHERN
KENAI PENINSULA WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST.

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN ALASKA WILL SWING THROUGH KODIAK
ISLAND THIS TONIGHT AND INTO THE KENAI PENINSULA AND ANCHORAGE BOWL
SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO COPPER RIVER BASIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL AK TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

A WEATHER FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH KODIAK ISLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SWING WEST INTO BRISTOL BAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
KODIAK ISLAND SUNDAY EVENING.

A LARGE INTENSE STORM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AND WILL BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE GULF MONDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
A LOW NEAR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND MOVE TO NEAR NOME SUNDAY MORNING
THEN WILL DISSIPATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE BERING
SEA WILL SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

A STORM SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE TO 280 MILES SOUTH
OF COLD BAY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THEN WILL DISSIPATE 450 MILES SOUTH OF
CHIGNIK SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WEATHER FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTH INTO BRISTOL BAY SUNDAY AND
INTO KUSKOKWIM VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
A STRENGTHENING 992 MB LOW, SOUTH OF CENTRAL ALEUTIANS, WILL MOVE
EAST AND DEEPEN TO 986 MB 150 MILES SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR TONIGHT
THEN WILL DISSIPATE SUNDAY NIGHT. 40 TO 60 MPH WINDS WILL MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND WILL CREATE BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING.

A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SUNDAY. GALE TO
POSSIBLE STORM FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LARGE STORM OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC MONDAY NIGHT WILL DRIFT
EAST AND WEAKEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT THEN WILL DISSIPATE MONDAY.

A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHWEST BERING TUESDAY NIGHT THEN TURN EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING WEDNESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 185.
         BLIZZARD WATCH 181.
MARINE...GALE 121 130 132 138 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 175 176
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...121 129 130 138 140 155 160
          165 170 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

NM DEC 07