Small Craft Advisory 1098, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST FRI DEC 28 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN BOTH THE GULF
AND BERING SEA, BUT BEGINNING TO HAVE DIVERGENT SOLUTION FOR THE LOW
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SAT MORNING. ALL SEEM TO BE
TRACKING THE PATH OF THE LOW A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH, SO THERE IS
STILL A LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES IN THE MODELS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE WEAKENING LOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF IS STILL PRODUCING SHOWERS
OVER PARTS OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUGH AND THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA.

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND SOUTHERN COOK
INLET IS STILL SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING. SKIES
HAVE CLEAR OVER MOST OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST SOUTH OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND APPEARS
NEARLY STATIONARY WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVING A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS
INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF...
THE WEAK LOW SOUTH OF THE KENAI PENINSULA WILL DRIFT EAST TO ABOUT 50
MILES SOUTH OF CORDOVA SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE SUNDAY MORNING.
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE COOK INLET WILL DRIFT OVER THE KENAI
PENINSULA AND SUSITNA VALLEY TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE SATURDAY MORNING.
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THESE AREAS AND THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL TONIGHT.

A LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SATURDAY MORNING WILL
MOVE EAST TO ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH OF KODIAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL SWING NORTH INTO THE WESTERN GULF
SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF WITH THE FRONT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE
SUSITNA VALLEY TONIGHT. SNOW ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE WILL END BY LATE
AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE EAST AND
BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT THEN
WEAKEN SUNDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA THROUGH SUNDAY. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE BERING SEA WILL MOVE SNOW SHOWERS ONTO THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.

BEING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS...
A 983 MB LOW NEAR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA THROUGH SUNDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE BERING SEA AND MOST OF THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE STORM SYSTEM SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DRIFT INTO
THE SOUTH GULF TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA
WILL DISSIPATE SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE TO JUST WEST
OF ATTU MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TO NEAR THE KOMMANDORSKY ISLANDS
TUESDAY. A WEATHER FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING TUESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130, 132, 155, 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM DEC 07