Small Craft Advisory 1047, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST WED DEC 12 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNINGS MODEL RUN CONTINUES TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PROBLEM WITH THE WITH THE NEXT LOW
MOVING INTO THE BERING SEEMS TO BE RESOLVED WITH LOW KEEPING A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WHICH THE EUROPEAN MODELS HAVE
BEEN GOING WITH ALL ALONG. OVER THE WEEKEND A STRONG FRONT MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL BERING...THE TIMING ISSUE WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT
ALSO SEEMS TO BE RESOLVING ITSELF WITH THE GFS COMING INTO LINE WITH
THE ECMF. IN THE EAST ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE LOW ENTERING THE GULF SOUTH OF KODIAK WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO KEEP MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. IT WILL
THEN DISSIPATE AS THE NEXT LOW MOVES NORTH FROM THE PACIFIC THRUSDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINIATE MUCH OF THE BERING AREA INTO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY.  THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT LOW MOVE TO JUST
SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY FRIDAY MORNING THEN CONTINUE TO
DRIFT WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
RAIN AND SNOW WILL PERSIST TONIGHT ALONG THE COASTAL AREA WITH THE
LOW IN THE GULF WITH COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS INLAND. THE DEEP
PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF THURSDAY NIGHT TO AGAIN AFFECT
MAINLY COASTAL AREAS AS IT HEADS HEADS EAST TO SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA.
SNOW SHOWER MAY MAKE IT INTO COPPER RIVER AREA BY FRIDAY AS SOME
MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW MOVING INTO THE JUNEAU AREA.

AN OFF SHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND KEEPING
THEM DRY. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. THE
LOW NEAR SAND POINT WILL CONTINUE DRIFT EAST AND SOUTH TONIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING THURSDAY. RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE
AKPEN THROUGH THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH A RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE BERING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE NORTH
PACIFIC LOW APPROACHING THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP
ITS TRACK SOUTH OF THE CHAIN EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW A DEEP TROUGH SETTING UP
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA WITH A RIDGE TO THE WEST.  THIS IS
KEEPING THE OUTLOOK OF A COLD AND MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND IN PLACE FOR THE
MAINLAND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 155
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

DEC 07