Small Craft Advisory 1017, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 050728 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST TUE DEC 4 2007

UPDATED ZONE 120 125 129. 

CORRECTED ZONE 138 AND 140 HEADLINE.

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-051500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 998 MB LOW 120 NM NORTHEAST OF KODIAK WILL DISSIPATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE GULF THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. 
ON THURSDAY MORNING A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW IN THE BERING SEA
WILL ENTER THE GULF OF ALASKA. A 1004 LOW WILL FORM ON THE FRONT 100
NM NORTH OF KODIAK THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL THEN MOVE NEAR SEWARD
THURSDAY EVENING.
$$

PKZ120-051500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
1120 PM AST TUE DEC 4 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE COAST NORTH AND EAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND.
SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-051500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST TUE DEC 4 2007

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-051500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
1030 PM AST TUE DEC 4 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT IN THE EVENING DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-051500-
PASSAGE CANAL
1030 PM AST TUE DEC 4 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 4
FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-051500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST TUE DEC 4 2007

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-051500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST TUE DEC 4 2007

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-051500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST TUE DEC 4 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-051500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST TUE DEC 4 2007

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BY LATE
EVENING. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35
KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND...SOUTHEAST WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-051500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST TUE DEC 4 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BY LATE
EVENING. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 051241
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST WED DEC 5 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-060300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES IN THE GULF. ON THU MORNING A
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW IN THE BERING ENTERS THE GULF. A 1004 MB
LOW FORMS ON THE FRONT 100 NM NORTH OF KODIAK CITY THU AFTERNOON AND
MOVES TO SEWARD THU EVENING.

$$

PKZ120-060300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST WED DEC 5 2007

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT SE 20 KT NORTH OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND THIS MORNING. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.   
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-060300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST WED DEC 5 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-060300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST WED DEC 5 2007

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS
7 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-060300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST WED DEC 5 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-060300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST WED DEC 5 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S TO SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT EXCEPT 11 FT SOUTHEAST OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS.  
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-060300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST WED DEC 5 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-060300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST WED DEC 5 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...WINDS BECOMING SW 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.TONIGHT...E TO NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-060300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST WED DEC 5 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING E TO NE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8
FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E TO NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-060300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST WED DEC 5 2007

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST TUE DEC 4 2007

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE BERING AND WESTERN AK THIS MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE
ROCKIES WITH A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN BERING. AT THE
SURFACE...SMALL LOWS ARE OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND NEAR KODIAK
ISLAND WITH A MUCH DEEPER LOW WEST OF ATTU.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL DAYS. THE FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE GFS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE KODIAK LOW MOVES TO THE KENAI
AND IS PRECEDED BY A FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTH GULF COAST TODAY.
THE BERING LOW MOVES INLAND AND THE ASSOCIATED RAPIDLY DECAYING FRONT
CROSSES THE AK AND ALEUTIAN RANGES WED. THE LOW NEAR ATTU MOVES INTO
THE BERING TODAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT REACHING WESTERN AK
TONIGHT...AND CROSSING THE ALEUTIAN RANGE THU. A PAIR OF NORTH
PACIFIC LOWS CROSS THE WESTERN AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS FRI. AT THIS
POINT THE GFS IS REPLACED BY THE ECMWF WHICH HAS SHOWN BETTER RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY...MERGING THE TWO LOWS IN THE CENTRAL BERING AND
LEAVING THE NEW LOW TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOW ALSO
MOVES INTO THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...AS THE ATTU LOW MOVES INTO THE BERING IT WILL BRING
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH WED WITH
STORMS AND GALES PERSISTING INTO THU AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST. SNOW
WILL MIX WITH RAIN AND THEN CHANGE BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS AS THE LOW
PASSES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY INTO THE AREA THU BEFORE THE
MERGING PACIFIC LOWS BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES AND STORMS FRI AND
SAT.

OVER SW AK...

WRAPAROUND SHOWERS FROM THE KODIAK LOW WILL AFFECT THE ALEUTIAN RANGE
TODAY WHILE THE FRONT FROM THE BERING LOW BRINGS SNOW AND WIND TO
COASTAL SECTIONS. BRIEF DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
MAJOR FRONT FROM THE ATTU LOW ARRIVES. THIS WILL BRING SNOW CHANGING
TO RAIN ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST WED. ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS THU AFTER THE FRONT MOVES EAST BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SNOW INLAND. THE FRONT WITH THE MERGING PACIFIC LOWS WILL BRING SNOW
SHOWERS FROM THE EAST ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN AND AK RANGES FRI.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE KODIAK
LOW WILL BRING STRONG WIND TO THE NORTH GULF COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH ABUNDANT SNOWFALL. THIS WILL BRING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE
KENAI...EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM AND THOMPSON PASS TODAY. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE BRIEFLY EARLY WED AND THEN THE ATTU FRONT ARRIVES WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST. THIS FEATURE
IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR SNOWFALL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL. IMPROVEMENT IS
AGAIN EXPECTED FRI.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST THE LOW MOVES INTO THE BERING AND KEEPS SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVER SW AK...THE ASSOCIATED FRONT FROM
THE BERING LOW WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS. IN THE EAST...COASTAL RAIN
AND SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE SAME FRONT WITH PRECIP CROSSING THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS DURING THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...SNOW ADVISORY 121
         BLIZZARD WARNING 125 131
         HIGH WIND WARNING 191
         HIGH WIND WATCH 187
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 125 129 130 140 180 185
         GALES 125 129 140 150 155 160 165 170 171 179 180 185
         STORMS 120 130 172 175 176
         HURRICANE FORCE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS DEC 07