Small Craft Advisory 1001, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST THU NOV 29 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM MAIN FOCUS. GFS IN GENERAL WILL BE
USED WITH SOME SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENTS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
.EAST...SYNOPTIC TREND IS TO BACK OFF ON QPF/POPS OVER KODIAK ISLAND.
DRYING CONDITIONS SET UP OVER THE MAINLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ARCTIC. LOCALIZED GUSTING N TO NE WINDS
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BUILDING PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AND ONSET OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL NE JET.

.WEST...PARENT LOW CENTER OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS IS SLOWLY
WEAKENING AND WILL DRIFT NORTH. SAT PICTURE SHOWS FAIRLY VIGOROUS
VORTICITY MAX APPROACHING THE FRONTAL ZONE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS.
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING SURFACE CENTER AND INSTANT OCCLUSION LIKELY.
GFS MODEL DEVELOPS SURFACE CENTER UNDER FAVORABLE JET POSITION. THIS
RUN SLOWS THE CENTER SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES TO OVER UNALASKA FRI
MORNING WITH A PRESSURE IN THE LOWER 960S. CENTER WILL RE-CURVE TO NW
AND MOVE TO THE SE COAST OF RUSSIA FRI NIGHT. WIND WARNING CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AK PEN...SW ALASKA AK WITH STORMS OVER
ASSOCIATED MARINE FORECAST INTO FRI AFTERNOON. TRACK OF LOW CENTER
AND BAND OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO ZONES 185 AND 195
FRI...SO WILL HOLD HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THESE ZONES AT THIS TIME.
WARNING LEVEL WINDS WILL DROP ALL AREAS FRI NIGHT AS BERING SEA
CENTER MOVES INTO RUSSIA AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX. EASTERN BERING
SEA FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS AND DRIFTS SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES SPREADS ACROSS SW ALASKA THIS WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNINGS 155 161 181.
         HIGH WIND WATCHES 185 AND 195.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE 180. STORM 150 155 160 165 AND 185.
         GALES 130 132 138 170 171 176 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC NOV 07