Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Anchorage, AK

000
WWAK58 PAFC 190048
SVSAFC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
448 PM ADT MON JUN 18 2007

AKZ141-190058-
/O.EXP.PAFC.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070619T0045Z/
COPPER RIVER BASIN AK-
448 PM ADT MON JUN 18 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR COPPER RIVER BASIN EXPIRED AT
445 PM ADT...

LAT...LON 6287 14583 6308 14676 6292 14751 6261 14615

$$

JN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT MON JUN 18 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS GOOD IN
THE EASTERN DOMAIN. BUT THERE IS CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE WESTERN
DOMAIN REGARDING THE RECEDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THEREFORE THE
00Z MON GFS WAS THE PREFERRED MODEL EAST OF 160W. AND THE 12Z SUN GFS

WAS THE PREFERRED MODEL 160W WESTWARD.

.UPPER LEVELS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND WILL
BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MAINLAND BY
TUESDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE ALOFT STRENGTHENS TODAY OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND THEN SHIFTS GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN
MAINLAND.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE PACIFIC ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

.SURFACE FEATURES...
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS SEEN BY SATELLITE EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN
ALASKA AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. WEAK 1013 MB TRIPLE POINT LOW IN
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF ALASKA DRIFTS SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATES BY
EVENING.
THE SURFACE RIDGE OUT WEST RECEDES SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH PACIFIC ALONG
WITH ITS UPPER LEVEL COUNTERPART. WILL WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
POTENTIAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE RIDGE AS MODELS POSSESS THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IN THIS AREA.
WEAKENING OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS TODAY THEN
RAPIDLY DISSIPATES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY FOG PERSISTING INTO THE AFTERNOON
ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DIRECTLY TO THE EAST OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...COPPER RIVER BASIN AND NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY.
PLENTY OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
BERING SEA...KUSKOKWIM DELTA...AND BRISTOL BAY COAST. CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE
OPPORTUNITY FOR DAYTIME HEATING.
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT WAY OUT WEST WILL BE
LIMITED TO AREAS WEST OF AMCHITKA.

.OUTLOOK...
ADVECTION OF HIGH THICKNESS VALUES COUPLED WITH THE MAXIMUM SOLAR
HEATING OF THE EQUINOX WILL ACT TO MAXIMIZE SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME NEAR
RECORD TEMPERATURES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY FOR INLAND AREAS OF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB JUN 07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
301 PM ADT MON JUN 18 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HAIL             PAXSON                  63.09N 145.61W
06/18/2007  E1.00 INCH                          AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            HAIL WITH MAXIMUM SIZE OF ONE INCH REPORTED IN A STRONG
            THUNDERSTORM. HAIL AN INCH DEEP ON GROUND.

&&

LUDWIG