Gale Warning 982, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 131257
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST THU DEC 13 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-140300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1007 MB LOW 95 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE BY THIS AFTERNOON. A 1008 MB LOW 150 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK CITY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE
BY THIS AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ120-140300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST THU DEC 13 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRI...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-140300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST THU DEC 13 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-140300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST THU DEC 13 2007

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. STRONGER WINDS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-140300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST THU DEC 13 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-140300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST THU DEC 13 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-140300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST THU DEC 13 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-140300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST THU DEC 13 2007

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-140300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST THU DEC 13 2007

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-140300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST THU DEC 13 2007

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
510 AM AST WED DEC 12 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE BEEN STEADILY IMPROVING 0N CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT OF
SOLUTIONS...MAINLY OUT WEST WHERE THE PROBLEMS HAVE BEEN MOST
PROMINENT. THEY HAVE ALL SEEMED TO LOCK ON TO A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK
OF A NORTH PACIFIC LOW TRACKING EASTWARD BELOW THE ALEUTIANS. HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS LOW FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF A FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE BERING IS DISAGREED UPON.
HAVE ONCE AGAIN STAYED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SOLUTION UNTIL
MODELS ARE TRENDING ONE WAY.

.ANALYSIS...
ALASKA WEATHER HAS SETTLED DOWN QUITE A BIT FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS.
THE GULF SURFACE LOW THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR YESTERDAYS RECORD
BREAKING SNOWFALL FOR ANCHORAGE ON ANY DECEMBER 11TH HAS MOVED
ONSHORE NEAR YAKUTAT AND DISSIPATED. A FEW SHOWERS STILL LINGER BUT
THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD HELP DIMINISH THESE IN THE MORNING. KODIAK
IS BEGINNING TO SEE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FROM ANOTHER SURFACE LOW
OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS LOW IS SLOWLY DIMINISHING AND WILL
ENTER THE GULF LATER TODAY WARMING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY OVER THE
GULF. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS STRETCHED FROM INTERIOR ALASKA DOWN
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE GETTING COLDER AND DRIER. THE
LOW TO ENTER THE GULF TODAY WILL ONLY AFFECT COASTAL AREAS BRINGING A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. A DEEPER NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
GULF THURSDAY NIGHT TO AGAIN AFFECT MAINLY COASTAL AREAS AS IT HEADS
HEADS EAST TO SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. HOWEVER SOME MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN FRIDAY.
SOUTHWEST/BERING/ALEUTIANS...THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER SAND POINT WILL
CONTINUE HEADING NORTH TO ONLY SPREAD PRECIPITATION AS FAR NORTH KING
SALMON AS THE HIGH OVER THE INTERIOR KEEPS ITS HOLD. THE RIDGE
ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE BERING WILL STILL ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO
SCATTER ACROSS THE AREA. THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW APPROACHING THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP ITS TRACK ABOUT 400 MILES
SOUTH OF THE CHAIN. HOWEVER WILL STILL BRING GALE FORCE WINDS AND
RAIN AND SNOW TO THE CHAIN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST
ALASKA WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY CLEAR AND DRY THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER THE
RIDGE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW A DEEP TROUGH SETTING UP
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA WITH A RIDGE TO THE WEST.  THIS IS
KEEPING THE OUTLOOK OF A COLD AND MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND IN PLACE FOR THE
MAINLAND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 155
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LR DEC 07