Gale Warning 974, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 091240
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
340 AM AST SUN DEC 9 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-100300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 986 MB LOW 250 NM NORTHWEST OF ST PAUL WILL DISSIPATE 300 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND SUN EVENING. A 987 MB LOW 130 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE TO 120 NM NORTHEAST OF ST PAUL AT
978 MB SUN AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE TO 140 NM NORTHWEST OF ST MATTHEW
AT 977 MB MON AFTERNOON AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MON
NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ150-100300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
340 AM AST SUN DEC 9 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-100300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
340 AM AST SUN DEC 9 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
20 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-100300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
340 AM AST SUN DEC 9 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-100300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
340 AM AST SUN DEC 9 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-100300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
340 AM AST SUN DEC 9 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-100300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
340 AM AST SUN DEC 9 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-100300-
UNALASKA BAY
340 AM AST SUN DEC 9 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING W WIND 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-100300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
340 AM AST SUN DEC 9 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-100300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
340 AM AST SUN DEC 9 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-100300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
340 AM AST SUN DEC 9 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-100300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
340 AM AST SUN DEC 9 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-100300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
340 AM AST SUN DEC 9 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING W WIND 30 KT BY NOON. SEAS BUILDING
TO 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AST SAT DEC 8 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE MODELS ARE DOING A GOOD JOB GIVEN HOW
DYNAMICALLY ACTIVE THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN IS. IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA AREA THE MODELS ALL BRING A MODERATE LOW TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN ALMOST TOTAL AGREEMENT
WITH THE LOW SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK WHILE THE NAM WANTS TO PLACE IT JUST
SOUTH OF THE ISLAND. THIS GENERAL PATTERN CONTINUES WITH THE NAM
PLACING THE LOW A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE OTHER TWO MODELS AS IT
MOVES TOWARD AND OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA. THE ECMWF CAN BE USED
THROUGH 00Z MON TUESDAY AFTER WHICH PINT IT SHOULD BE VIEWED
CRITICALLY SINCE IT HAS THE LOW MAKING A SHARP RIGHT HAND TURN TO GO
SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WHILE THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW UP THE
EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA WITH THE NAM FARTHER WEST. THERE IS NO REASON
FOR THE LOW TO BEHAVE IN SUCH A MANNER SO THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS
SEEM MORE REASONABLE. THE GFS IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION IN LARGE PART
TO THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IT HAS HAD WITH THIS SYSTEM THE PAST
THREE TO FOUR RUNS.
IN THE BERING SEA REGION THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE BUT HAVE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAST EACH ONE WANTS TO MOVE THE LOW MOVING INTO
THE BERING SEA FROM THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. GFS REMAIN THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION OUT WEST AS WELL WITH GOOD CONSISTENCY THE PAST FEW RUNS.
THE ONLY CONCERN IS THAT IT MAY BE MOVING THE LOW A LITTLE FAST PAST
60 HOURS OUT BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...MAIN LOW CENTER IS IN THE BERING SEA
NORTH OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. THE OLD FRONT EXTENDING OFF THIS LOW
STRETCHES INTO THE BRISTOL BAY AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHERE IT IS
BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS
MOVED FARTHER EAST AND IS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE EXTENDING OUT OF THE
NORTH PACIFIC AND OVER THE CORDOVA AREA. A TRIPLE POINT LOW HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST BUT WILL NOT GAIN MUCH STRENGTH
BECAUSE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL CONTINUE TO THE EAST WHILE THE
LOW WEAKENS AND HEADS UP PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
IN THE BERING SEA THE LOW THAT IS NORTH OF THE PRIBILOFS WILL WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES NORTHWEST AS ANOTHER LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
WILL REPLACE IT IN THE EAST CENTRAL BERING SEA SUNDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...STARTING OFF IN THE ANCHORAGE AREA...WHERE ONE
HAS BEEN UNABLE TO PURCHASE A SNOWFLAKE AS OF LATE...LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE WEAK LOW MOVING INTO PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND. WHILE THE FAVORABLE POSITION OF THE LOW WILL PROBABLY CAUSE
SOME SNOW IT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT DUE TO A NUMBER OF OTHER UNFAVORABLE
CONDITIONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH IT...THE LARGEST BEING THE LACK OF
COLD AIR. WITH A LOW IN THE SOUND ONE WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME GOOD
THERMAL PACKING AT 850 MB AND IT IS JUST NOT THERE. THIS ALONE WILL
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT MAY FALL. ALSO THERE IS NOW ENOUGH WARM
AR IN THE COOK INLET AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA IT IS NOT A
GUARANTEE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL EVEN BE SNOW AT THIS POINT...THOUGH
IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL COOL OFF ENOUGH FOR IT TO BE AT THIS POINT.
THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA WILL SEE MOSTLY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM
WITH JUST TOO MUCH WARM AIR TO DEVELOP SNOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN VALDEZ WHERE COLD AIR CAN BE TAPPED FROM THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN.
BRISTOL BAY WILL ALSO SEE RAIN AND SNOW WITH WARM ADVECTION MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THERE WILL BE A SMALL PATTERN SHIFT IN THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH LOOKS TO START SENDING THE LOWS AROUND THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS INTO THE GULF AS OPPOSED THE BERING SEA IN THE
MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH HOWEVER SO THIS PATTERN OF BRINGING IN WARM AIR
AND FROM THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE FOR AWHILE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 125 130 132 138 140 141 150 155 160 165 170 172 175
180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

EZ DEC 07