Gale Warning 922, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 161246
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AST SUN DEC 16 2007

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-170300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 981 MB LOW NEAR 59N 146W THIS MORNING DRIFTS SOUTH TO 58N 143W AT
984 MB MON NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ351-170300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AST SUN DEC 16 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

PKZ352-170300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AST SUN DEC 16 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 170005
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AST SUN DEC 16 2007

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-171500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 980 MB LOW VICINITY 58N 144W WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT TO 57N 141W TUE
AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ351-171500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AST SUN DEC 16 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED AND THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-171500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AST SUN DEC 16 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 171250
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AST MON DEC 17 2007

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-180300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 978 MB LOW NEAR 57N 145W THIS MORNING REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS IT WEAKENS TO 987 MB.
$$

PKZ351-180300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AST MON DEC 17 2007

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED AND THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  
$$

PKZ352-180300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AST MON DEC 17 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  
$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 180049
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AST MON DEC 17 2007

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-181500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 980 MB LOW NEAR 58N 144W THIS AFTERNOON WEAKENS TO 988 MB TUE NIGHT
NEAR 57N 141W THEN WEAKENS FURTHER TO 993 MB NEAR 56N 139W WED
AFTERNOON. A SECOND CENTER DEVELOPS WED AFTERNOON NEAR 59N 144W AT
993 MB.
$$

PKZ351-181500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AST MON DEC 17 2007

.TONIGHT...N TO NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-181500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AST MON DEC 17 2007

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST SAT DEC 15 2007

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A FAIRLY STABLE UPPER FLOW IS ESTABLISHED OVER ALASKA WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST BERING THROUGH THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND AN UPPER TROUGH FROM NORTH OF BARROW TO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF ALASKA. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN FROM THE ARCTIC CROSSING OVER BARROW
SUN NIGHT.  THIS WAVE WILL MOVE TO WEST CENTRAL INTERIOR ALASKA BY
TUE CAUSING THE TROUGH TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD.  THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY WITH AN UPPER HIGH CUTTING OFF JUST WEST
OF ANADYR BY LATE MON AND WESTERLIES BREAKING THROUGH UNDER THE HIGH
OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS BY TUE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM.  DIFFERENCES SHOW UP
MON IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.  THE GFS BRINGS THE NEXT LOW NORTH OF
THE ALEUTIANS LATE MON WHILE THE UKMET KEEPS THIS LOW SOUTH OF THE
CHAIN AND STRETCHES IT OUT ALONG 50N. WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE UKMET
SOLUTION AS IT IS A BETTER FIT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES
BREAKING THROUGH THE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE CHAIN.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL...
COLD AND LOCALLY WINDY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH MONDAY.
SLOW COLD ADVECTION WILL PERSIST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WILL
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF.
EXPECT LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES. SOME OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE WESTERN GULF FROM  SOUTH OF CHIGNIK
NORTHEAST TO KENNEDY ENTRANCE. MANY OTHER AREAS OF IN CHANNELED
TERRAIN SUCH AS RESURRECTION BAY WILL EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS AS
WELL. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR MANY AREAS NEAR
SHORE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY DRY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
PRETTY MUCH THE SAME SETUP FOR THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AS
SOUTH CENTRAL...EXCEPT THAT WINDS WILL GENERALLY NOT BE AS STRONG AS
SOUTH CENTRAL BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COLDER.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
BERING/ALEUTIANS TO THE WEST OF THE BERING SEA RIDGE. A MODERATELY
STRONG FRONT IS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS
TODAY BRINGING GALES AND RAIN...OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN. THIS FRONT
WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND STALL SUNDAY AS IT RUNS INTO THE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS. A STRONG LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH STORM FORCE WINDS
LIKELY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER AIR FLOW SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THINGS GET MORE
UNCERTAIN AFTER WEDNESDAY.  THE MODELS INDICATE RETROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL ALASKA TROUGH TO THE EASTERN BERING BY FRI AND BUILDING
AN UPPER RDIGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. IF CORRECT THIS WILL
BRING WARMER AND WETTER FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVER MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN ALASKA MAINLAND BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORM  130 352
         GALE  121 129 132 138 150 155 165 172 175 176 185 351 411
                 412 413
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY  121 125 129 130 132 138 140 141 150
                 160 165 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RHH DEC 07