Gale Warning 911, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 031252
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AST MON DEC 3 2007

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-040300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 982 MB LOW NEAR 55N 162W INTENSIFIES TO 972 MB MON EVENING NEAR 55N
157W THEN MOVES INTO SHELIKOF STRAIT AND WEAKENS. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW
CROSSES ATTU TUE MORNING AND INTENSIFIES TO 952 MB TUE EVENING NEAR
55N 177E. THIS LOW THEN WEAKENS TO 955 MB TUE NIGHT NEAR 56N 180.
$$

PKZ411-040300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AST MON DEC 3 2007

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-040300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AST MON DEC 3 2007

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-040300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AST MON DEC 3 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 31 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-040300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AST MON DEC 3 2007

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT SE 30 KT EAST OF 167W. SEAS 12 FT.
SNOW. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 040053 CCA
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AST MON DEC 3 2007

CORRECTED SYNOPSIS

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-041500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 973 MB LOW NEAR 53N 158W WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA TUESDAY
MORNING. A 968 MB LOW WILL MOVE NEAR 50N 167E ON TUESDAY MORNING. IT
WILL STRENGTHEN TO 955 MB AND MOVE TO 54N 176E TUESDAY NIGHT. BY
THURSDAY MORNING IT WEAKENS TO 970 MB AT 62N 174W.
$$

PKZ411-041500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AST MON DEC 3 2007

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-041500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AST MON DEC 3 2007

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-041500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AST MON DEC 3 2007

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-041500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AST MON DEC 3 2007

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST SUN DEC 2 2007

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

PATTERN CHANGE IN PROGRESS THIS MORNING. CUT-OFF UPPER RIDGE IS
DEVELOPING A POSITIVE TILT BETWEEN NORTHERN GREENLAND AND THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE HEMMED IN BETWEEN CUT-OFF LOWS
WEST OF KAMCHATKA AND OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST AK. AT THE SURFACE...THE
DECAYING FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TO EASTERN RUSSIA.
RIDGING IS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WHILE ANOTHER RIDGE
COVERS MAINLAND AK. A LOW IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN CHANGE. THE UPPER
RIDGE CONTINUES ITS POSITIVE TILT TREND UNTIL IT BECOMES ZONALLY
ORIENTED ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST MON NIGHT. THIS ALLOWS THE SOUTHEAST
AK TROUGH TO RETROGRADE WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST MON
AFTERNOON AND THEN ON INTO THE BERING ON TUE. AT THE SURFACE...THE
GULF LOW MOVES WEST AND MERGES INTO A MASSIVE LOW OVER THE BERING ON
TUE. THE FORECAST LEANS HEAVILY ON THE GFS FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE AND DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF WILL KEEP A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG
THE COAST AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TODAY. WARNING LEVEL WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA...THE
VALDEZ/THOMPSON PASS AREA...AND MATANUSKA VALLEY. UPPER SUPPORT WILL
DISCONNECT FROM THE SURFACE GRADIENT AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW
WARNING LEVELS BY MIDDAY. AS THE GULF LOW MOVES SOUTHWEST IT WILL
BRING SOME SNOW TO THE KENAI AND KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT...AND AS IT
STALLS SOUTH OF THE AKPEN...LIGHTER PRECIP ON ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE AREAS MON. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAME LOW WILL
BRING MORE SNOW TO THESE AREAS THROUGH WED AS THE LOW WEAKENS INTO AN
OPEN WAVE.

FOR SW AK...DRY CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME CLOUDS AND SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE GULF LOW MOVES WEST. THESE SHOWERS BECOME MORE
LOCALIZED NEAR THE ALEUTIAN RANGE AS THE LOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN TUE.

IN THE WEST...AREAS OF FOG WITH THE OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER WILL
AFFECT MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING THROUGH MON. A FRONT IN
THE EXTREME WESTERN BERING WILL MAKE LITTLE EASTWARD HEADWAY UNTIL IT
DISSIPATES MON. ON TUE WEATHER FEATURES BEGIN TO MOVE WEST TO EAST
AGAIN. THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW BRINGS A FRONT INTO THE BERING TUE WITH
PLENTY OF WARM ADVECTION RAIN IN THE FAR WEST...AND SNOW FOLLOWED BY
RAIN TOWARD BRISTOL BAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

OUT WEST...THE MASSIVE LOW AND FRONT MOVE TO THE BERING STRAIT AND
COLD SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOW THEIR PATH FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. OVER
SW AK...ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING ABUNDANT PRECIP WED INTO THU...
BEGINNING AS SNOW AND CHANGING OVER TO RAIN. IN THE EAST...ONSHORE
FLOW WILL BRING SNOW TO THE NORTH GULF COAST INTO WED FOLLOWED BY
BRIEF DRYING. REMNANTS OF THE BERING FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION THU AND FRI...LIMITED TO THE COAST WITH SOME
SHOWERS CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS TO INLAND ZONES.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 111 131 135
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...140 141 180 185
GALES 121 130 132 138 140 150 170 172 175 176 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS DEC 07