Gale Warning 904, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST WED NOV 28 2007

...UPDATED FOR WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY...

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS MODEL STILL LOOKS LIKE BEST CHOICE. MODELS
STILL SHOW DIFFERENCES ON CENTERS...ESPECIALLY WITH WAVES MOVING
NORTH ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA/WESTERN
AK PEN. HOWEVER...THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS ON THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETTING UP OVER THE AK PEN/EASTERN BERING SEA TODAY THROUGH
THU.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
.WEST...950S CENTER OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MOVES TO OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA THU NIGHT AND SLOWLY WEAKENS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
960S BY THU NIGHT. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ELONGATES N AND MAKES
SLOW PROGRESS EAST OVER THE NEXT 60 HOURS AS WAVES DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. TIMING OF WAVES MOVING NORTH ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY
TO BE SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. FIRST OF LOWS MOVES TO JUST SOUTH OF
DUTCH HARBOR THU MORNING. THIS CENTER EVENTUALLY WILL RE-CURVE NW
AROUND PARENT CENTER OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT CENTER SOUTH OF DUTCH THU NIGHT IN THE 960S. THIS CENTER
EVENTUALLY BECOMES THE DOMINATE LOW CENTER AS IT MOVES TO THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA IN THE 950S FRI AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGH WIND WARNING
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP UNDER STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL JET
OVER THE AK PEN THU MORNING AND SPREAD TO BRISTOL BAY AND DELTA COAST
THROUGH THU NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT EAST SOME AND WEAKEN FRI WITH
LOSS OF UPPER JET SUPPORT AND WEAKENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS.
TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH OVER SW ALASKA TO PREVENT A BLOWING SNOW
HAZARD.

.EAST...A RIDGE FROM THE CENTRAL INTERIOR TO KODIAK THEN SOUTHEAST
OVER THE GULF WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD TO EXTEND FROM
MACKENZIE BAY SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA BY LATE THU
AND THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY SAT. THE STRONG
SOUTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST GULF WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD REACHING KODIAK ISLAND BY LATE THU AND BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY SAT. EXPECT STRONG SOUTHEAST WIND
OVER KODIAK ISLAND EXCEPT NORTHEAST IN SHELIKOF STRAIT THU NIGHT
THROUGH SAT MORNING WITH MODERATE RAIN.  HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL ON
SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES FRI. MODERATE MATANUSKA WINDS GUSTING IN THE
40S ARE LIKELY BEGINNING LATE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 185 181 161 155
         HIGH WIND WATCH 195
MARINE...STORM 155 160 170 171 175 179 180 414
         GALE 130 132 138 150 165 172 176 185 352 411 412 413
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC NOV 07