Gale Warning 842, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 110000
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
300 PM AST SAT NOV 10 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-111500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 975 MB LOW 180 NM SOUTH OF SEWARD WILL DRIFT NORTH TO 50 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SEWARD AS A 982 MB LOW SUN MORNING AND THEN EAST TO 50
NM SOUTHWEST OF YAKUTAT AS A 988 MB LOW MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-111500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
300 PM AST SAT NOV 10 2007

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-111500-
RESURRECTION BAY
300 PM AST SAT NOV 10 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-111500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
300 PM AST SAT NOV 10 2007

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-111500-
PASSAGE CANAL
300 PM AST SAT NOV 10 2007

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-111500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
300 PM AST SAT NOV 10 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW WIND 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-111500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
300 PM AST SAT NOV 10 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-111500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
300 PM AST SAT NOV 10 2007

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-111500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
300 PM AST SAT NOV 10 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-111500-
KACHEMAK BAY
300 PM AST SAT NOV 10 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST FRI NOV 9 2007

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BERING STRAIT TO SOUTH OF
KODIAK ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A VERTICAL MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE
LOW IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN BRISTOL BAY. A STATIONARY WEAKENING
FRONT EXTENDS FROM COOK INLET SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE
MAIN FEATURES INCLUDE THE BRISTOL BAY LOW MOVING SLOWLY EAST THEN
STALLING AND WEAKENING NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND SUN...A STORM DEVELOPING
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND BECOMING AN INTENSE LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE SUN...AND A LARGE LOW MOVING FROM EASTERN SIBERIA TO THE
NORTHERN BERING OVER THE WEEKEND PRODUCING MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE ALEUTIAN CHAIN SAT AND SUN. MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE DIVERSE AND VARIED AFTER MON.  THE COMMON THEME OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF FOR NEXT WEEK IS TO DEVELOP A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGING LOW OVER
THE MID PACIFIC AND BRING IT TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA BY LATE
NEXT WEEK. IF THIS HAPPENS IT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN MOVING AN ANCHOR CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE GULF OF ALASKA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
IN THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
OVER THE ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
BERING TONIGHT AND SAT WITH THE LOW MOVING IN FROM SIBERIA. THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE SIBERIAN LOW WILL REACH THE ALASKA PENINSULA
LATE SAT AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA SUN AND MON. WESTERLY GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING AND THE ENTIRE ALEUTIAN CHAIN
SAT AND SUN.

OVER SW AK SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND END TONIGHT AS THE BRISTOL BAY
LOW MOVES ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA. A WEAK RIDGE WILL DRY OUT THE
AREA TEMPORARILY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THE SIBERIAN LOW MOVING INTO THE
BERING WILL SET UP AN OVERRUNNING SCENARIO SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY MON MORNING. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY COLD
FOR THIS TO BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A LOW DEVELOPS
ALONG THE BERING COLD FRONT AND REACHES THE COAST DURING
THE PERIOD.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...THE GULF FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
AND WEAKEN.  RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE INTERIOR WILL
DIMINISH BUT PERSIST ON SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE REGIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND EASTERN
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TONIGHT WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLY MAKING IT ACROSS
THE CHUGACH INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND TALKEETNA
MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL ALL TAPER OFF SUN AS THE BRISTOL BAY LOW CROSSES
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND BRINGS RAIN TO KODIAK ISLAND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DIVERGENCE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS.  A POSSIBLE
SHIFT IN THE PATTERN IS INDICATED.  IF THIS HAPPENS LOOK FOR AN
ANCHOR LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.  RESULTANT WEATHER WILL BE A STRONG
COOLING TREND ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND THE EASTERN BERING
BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 120 125 150 155 165 180 185 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RHH NOV 07