Gale Warning 840, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 090705 AAC
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1005 PM AST THU NOV 8 2007

UPDATED AREA 140

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-091500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 988 MB LOW 280 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND MOVES INLAND OVER THE
KENAI PENINSULA AT 982 MB FRI MORNING. A SECONDARY 982 MB LOW 400 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND FRI MOVES TO NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND AT
973 MB SAT MORNING. A 963 MB LOW 120 NM SOUTHWEST OF CAPE NEWENHAM
MOVES OVER SHELIKOF STRAIT AT 974 MB SATURDAY MORNING. 

$$

PKZ120-091500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
300 PM AST THU NOV 8 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-091500-
RESURRECTION BAY
300 PM AST THU NOV 8 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-091500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
300 PM AST THU NOV 8 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-091500-
PASSAGE CANAL
300 PM AST THU NOV 8 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-091500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
300 PM AST THU NOV 8 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-091500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
300 PM AST THU NOV 8 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-091500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
300 PM AST THU NOV 8 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-091500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
1005 PM AST THU NOV 8 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DECREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT...
STRONGEST SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND. GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT OF TURNAGAIN
ARM. SEAS 8 FT EXCEPT 18 FT SOUTH OF KACHEMAK BAY. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-091500-
KACHEMAK BAY
800 PM AST THU NOV 8 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT...SUBSIDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 091251
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST FRI NOV 9 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-100300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF MOVES INLAND OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF FRI NIGHT. A 965 MB LOW 50 NM SOUTH OF CAPE
NEWENHAM CROSSES THE ALASKA PENINSULA FRI EVENING AND KODIAK 
ISLAND SAT MORNING. THIS LOW THEN MOVES TO 75 NM SOUTHEAST OF 
SEWARD SAT NIGHT AT 980 MB.  
$$

PKZ120-100300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST FRI NOV 9 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W OF CAPE CLEARE...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO S 15 KT BY
AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. E OF CAPE CLEARE...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING
TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-100300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST FRI NOV 9 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS 
S OF CAINES HEAD IN THE MORNING. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-100300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST FRI NOV 9 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-100300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST FRI NOV 9 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. 
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-100300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST FRI NOV 9 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-100300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST FRI NOV 9 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY LATE MORNING. 
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-100300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST FRI NOV 9 2007

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-100300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST FRI NOV 9 2007

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-100300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST FRI NOV 9 2007

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST THU NOV 8 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS MODEL OVERALL PREFERRED IN THE SHORT TO MID
RANGE. EAST BERING SEA LOW IS HANDLED WELL. PREFER HOW THE GFS IS
HANDLING THE DEVELOPING FRONTAL WAVES OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. EXPECT
THE FIRST WAVE TO IMPACT THE KENAI PEN ON FRI. THIS WILL TEND TO SLOW
THE EAST MOVEMENT OF FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHING SOUTHCENTRAL.  MODELS
ARE STILL HAVING WITH PROBLEMS WITH INTENSITY AND POSITIONS OF
FEATURES IN THE LONG RANGE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 960S EAST BERING SEA LOW TO BE FULLY
OCCLUDED. CENTER IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT TO NEAR KODIAK
ISLAND SAT MORNING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SINCE CENTER IS ALREADY
STACKED AND SHOULD START WEAKENING. FRONTAL WAVE NEAR 50N 152W IS
UNDER A FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY JET AND SHOULD MOVE TO NEAR THE KENAI
PEN FRI AND THEN INLAND. PRESSURE LIKELY TO BE IN THE LOWER 980S OR
SO. THIS WILL TEND TO SLOW THE EAST MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH
APPROACHING SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND MAINTAIN THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER WAVE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SAME
BOUNDARY AND EVENTUALLY END UP OVER THE EAST/CENTRAL GULF COAST SAT.
MODELS STILL A LITTLE ON CERTAIN ON THIS FEATURE...SO MAY HOLD OFF ON
ANY MAJOR SHIFTS. EXPECT CENTER WILL MOVE INLAND ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST SAT AFTERNOON AS CENTER FROM THE EASTERN BERING SEA MOVES NEAR
KODIAK ISLAND.

.SHORT TERM...
.EAST...HIGH WIND WARNING CONDITIONS WITH STRONG GAP WINDS OVER ZONES
101 AND 125 LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WARNING LEVEL WINDS
SHOULD END FRI MORNING...HOWEVER...WAVE MAY TEND TO HOLD WINDS OVER
125 A LITTLE LONGER. STRONG SE WINDS IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS AND
GENERAL WARM ADVECTION WILL HOLD RAIN(SNOW OR MIX AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS) ALONG WINDWARD/COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL WITH SLOW
PROGRESSION ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST FRI/FRI NIGHT. NOT LOOKING AT
THIS TIME FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN VALLEY SECTIONS.

.WEST...SNOW LIKELY TO MIX WITH RAIN OVER THE DELTA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH MAY EVEN SEE BRIEF BREAK BEFORE
SHOWERS IN THE UNSTABLE AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT. SHOWERS LIKELY TO BE
THE CENTRAL RULE WITH DECAYING LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING
SEA/BRISTOL BAY THROUGH SAT. STRONG W TO NW WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS CENTER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EAST BERING SEA/PRIBILOFS/EAST
ALEUTIANS...AK PEN THROUGH FRI. SHOULD SEE A SLOW WEAKENING AND SHIFT
EAST OF WIND MAX SAT AS THE LOW MOVES TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...KEPT CHANGES TO A MINIMUM.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNINGS 101 AND 125.
MARINE...STORMS...155 AND 170.
         GALES: 120 125 129 130 132 140 141 150 160 165 171 179 180
                185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC NOV 07