Gale Warning 820, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 021447 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
647 AM ADT FRI NOV 2 2007

UPDATED ZONES 120 125 130 140

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-030200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 992 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL MOVE INLAND AND
DISSIPATE BY FRI AFTERNOON. A 1007 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR CAPE
CLEARE FRI NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE OVER NORTHERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
SAT EVENING. 
$$

PKZ120-030200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
647 AM ADT FRI NOV 2 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-030200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT FRI NOV 2 2007

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-030200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
647 AM ADT FRI NOV 2 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 20 KT BY AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-030200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT FRI NOV 2 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-030200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
647 AM ADT FRI NOV 2 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-030200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT FRI NOV 2 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-030200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT FRI NOV 2 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-030200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
647 AM ADT FRI NOV 2 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S END OF INLET...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. ELSEWHERE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-030200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT FRI NOV 2 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT FRI NOV 2 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...ALL MODELS INITIALIZED WELL. GOOD CONSISTENCY
BETWEEN MODELS AND FROM RUN TO RUN OUT THROUGH MONDAY. ECMWF
PREFERRED IN THE MID TO LONG TERM. GFS ERRATIC IN MID TO LONG TERM.

.UPPER LEVELS...
CUT OFF H518 LOW CENTERED NEAR DILLINGHAM DRIFTS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA TODAY THEN DISSIPATES NEAR YAKUTAT BY SAT
AFTERNOON. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALIGNED NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE BERING SEA AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TRANSLATES EASTWARD OVER WESTERN
MAINLAND ALASKA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN FLATTENS OUT AS IT HEADS
INTO WESTERN CANADA BY SAT NIGHT. ALSO AN H510 MB LOW DEVELOPS ABOUT
OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA THIS AFTERNOON THEN REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SURFACE ANALYSIS...
OLD 992 MB SFC LOW OVER NORTHERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND MOVES INLAND
AND DISSIPATES TODAY. A RESIDUAL 1007 MB LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NEAR CAPE CLEARE LATE TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE OVER NORTHERN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND SATURDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE A 971 MB SURFACE REFLECTION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS ABOUT 240 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND THROUGH THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS. IT WILL
MARCH STEADILY EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL BERING AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS BY SAT MORNING. THE FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD BUT WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO MAINLAND ALASKA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

.MARITIME WEST...
STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THIS
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A TROPICAL CONNECTION. EXPECTED PLENTY OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT MOST OF IT FALLING AS RAIN. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO WEST OR NORTHWEST POST FRONTAL AND RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS. EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW AT
TIMES. SUSTAINED STORM FORCE WESTERLIES ARE LIKELY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS LOW.

.WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE AND EAST OF THE PRIBILOFS...
SATELLITE INDICATES NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND CAA SHOWERS OVER THE
EASTERN BERING AND MUCH OF SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. NORTHWEST FLOW
EXPECTED TO CUT OFF BY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW OVER NORTHERN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND DISSIPATES THIS MORNING. EXPECT BRIEF CLEARING BEFORE
THE FRONT ARRIVES SATURDAY EVENING.

.SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...
REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONT OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS THEY SPIRAL AROUND THE DYING LOW. VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND PERIODS
OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. SKIES CLEARING TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. REMNANTS OF THE BERING FRONT WILL REACH SOUTHCENTRAL ON
SUNDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE  120 125 130 155 160 165 170 172 179 180 185
         STORM 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB NOV 07