Gale Warning 791, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 051234
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AST MON NOV 5 2007

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-060300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 974 MB LOW NEAR 56N 167E WILL BECOME A 982 MB LOW NEAR 53N 172E 
TUE NIGHT. A 981 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR 50N 178E MON EVENING AND
MOVE TO 55N 169W TUE NIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY. A 982 MB
LOW NEAR 50N 160W MON EVENING WILL STRENGTHEN TO 976 MB NEAR 56N 
160W TUE MORNING THEN MOVE TO 58N 166W AS A 982 MB LOW BY WED
MORNING. 

$$

PKZ411-060300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AST MON NOV 5 2007

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-060300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AST MON NOV 5 2007

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-060300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AST MON NOV 5 2007

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-060300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AST MON NOV 5 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST SUN NOV 4 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
ALL MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON STRENGTH AND TRACKS OF PRIMARY
LOWS. HOWEVER THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE REGARDING THE MULTIPLE
SMALL LOW CENTERS ROTATING AROUND THE PRIMARY BERING LOW. GFS HAS HAD
THE BEST TRACK RECORD WITH THIS SYSTEM SO IT CONTINUES TO BE THE
MODEL OF CHOICE. ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN DOMAIN.

.SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
PRIMARY BERING LOW IS A 972 MB LOW APPROX 350 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA.
THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO TRAVERSE SOUTHWESTWARD TODAY ARRIVING AT
APPROX 150 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA BY SUN MORNING.
A 981 MB LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA APPROX
100 NM NORTHWEST OF ADAK TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING ITS
EXACT STRENGTH AND POSITION. THIS LOW WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY FEATURE
IN THE BERING MONDAY AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD TOWARD ST MATTHEW ISLAND.
MEANWHILE AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY BUT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL OUT ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE AND OVER
BARREN ISLAND WATERS TONIGHT.
NEXT FEATURE OF CONCERN IS A WEAK NORTH PACIFIC LOW THAT RAPIDLY
DEVELOPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY TO BECOME A 976 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTH
OF CHIGNIK MONDAY NIGHT.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
EXPECT CONTINUED MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ALSO AREAS OF GALE FORCE WINDS.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND FALL MAINLY AS LIGHT
SNOW OVER INLAND AREAS. COASTAL SECTIONS WILL EXPERIENCE A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. CLOUDY SKIES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WHOLE OF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
TUESDAY BRINGING PARTIAL CLEARING AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT HAS LIMITED OVERNIGHT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER AREAS OF FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS ARE
STILL PROBABLE THIS MORNING OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND PORTIONS
OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY. LITTLE OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT HAS MADE IT EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE. BUT OCCASIONAL LIGHT
SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED OVERNIGHT AT BOTH TALKEETNA AND KENAI. SNOW
SHOULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE KENAI
PENINSULA BUT LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE SUSITNA
VALLEY THROUGH AFTERNOON TODAY. LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE ANCHORAGE BOWL OR MATANUSKA VALLEY.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE LOW SOUTH OF CHIGNIK MONDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK DIRECTLY
OVER KODIAK ISLAND AND THEN INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND ON WEDNESDAY.
POTENTIAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW.
PLENTY OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO ANY
ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL LIKELY FALLING AS RAIN OR WET SNOW.
MEANWHILE MULTIPLE WEAK LOWS OVER THE BERING SEA WILL KEEP WEATHER
CONDITIONS UNSETTLED ACROSS THE MARITIME WEST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 150 172 175 176 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB NOV 07