Gale Warning 734, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 132349
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT SAT OCT 13 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-141400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 979 MB LOW NEAR MONTAGUE ISLAND WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER COOK INLET
TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE SUN MORNING. A 982 MB LOW DEVELOPING NEAR
DUTCH HARBOR SUN MORNING WILL MOVE TO 300 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND AND STRENGTHEN TO 969 MB MON AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-141400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT SAT OCT 13 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT SE 25 NORTH AND EAST OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND IN THE EARLY EVENING. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-141400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DECREASING TO 10 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.   

$$

PKZ125-141400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-141400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-141400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT SAT OCT 13 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-141400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT SAT OCT 13 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-141400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT SAT OCT 13 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-141400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT SAT OCT 13 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-141400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
100 PM ADT FRI OCT 12 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS STILL STRUGGLING EVEN IN THE VERY SHORT TERM. THE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GULF IS HANDLED DIFFERENTLY BY THE NAM AND GFS...POSSIBLY
DUE TO RESOLUTION DIFFERENCES...MORE ON THIS BELOW. ON THE WEEKEND A
LOW TRAVERSING THE BERING SEA HAS BEEN (AND STILL IS) GIVING THE
MODELS A CASE OF THE WAFFLES.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
STEERING LOW OVER THE BERING STRAIT WITH A SYSTEM IN THE ARCTIC
PORTION OF THE JET OVER THE ALEUTIANS...AND A SYSTEM IN THE
SUB-TROPICAL PORTION BOMBING OUT IN THE NORTHERN GULF. THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE IS RIDING THE SUB-TROPICAL JET INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA
WITH AN OFFSHOOT PULLING INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA WITH THE WARM FRONT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE GULF LOW IS PROVIDING AN INTERESTING FORECAST CHALLENGE. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE ONE LARGE LOW CENTER THAT WILL TIGHTEN UP AND PUSH
WEST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND TONIGHT. THE NAM HAS TWO LOWS. ONE OFF THE
EAST COAST OF KODIAK AND THE OTHER EAST OF IT AT ABOUT 140 DEGREES
WEST LONGITUDE. IT STRENGTHENS THE FURTHER EAST LOW AND BRINGS IT
NORTHWESTWARD OVER MIDDLETON ISLAND TONIGHT AND DISSIPATES THE LOW
NEAR KODIAK. THE NAM SOLUTION WOULD CONTINUE STORM CONDITIONS IN THE
NORTHERN GULF UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION ENDS
THE STORMS SIX HOURS EARLIER. IT IS POSSIBLE THE NAM IS ON TO
SOMETHING HERE DUE TO ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF
THE COINT...THE NAM HAS NOT HAD A VERY GOOD TRACK RECORD LATELY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY TO SEE WHICH MODEL TO FOLLOW.

BOTH SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND LATE SATURDAY.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW GIVES A DECENT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AMOUNTS UP TO A COUPLE
OF INCHES WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE ZONES.

THE BERING SEA LOW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT HAS BEEN
GIVING THE MODELS FITS FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
RAY OF HOPE WITH THE 12Z MODEL RUNS. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE NICELY
ON LOCATION AND STRENGTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL UNCERTAINTY AS
THE NAM AND UKMET ARE NOT SO AGREEABLE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
WITH MODEL STRUGGLES IN THE EARLIER PERIODS...CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK IS NOT VERY HIGH. PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY
ARE GOOD BETS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 120.
         GALE WARNING 125 170 172 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG OCT 07